Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 214 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a women’s strawweight fight between Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 214 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 214 predictions for picks for each fight on the main card. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
UFC Fight Night 214 Main Card best bets
Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Lemos – Fight to go the Distance – No (+100)
Marina Rodriguez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-1-2. She is 7-1-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Yan Xiaonan by split decision back in March of this year. Rodriguez is averaging 5.03 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47%. She is absorbing 3.07 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%.
Amanda Lemos comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-2-1. She is 6-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Michelle Waterson by submission back in July of this year. Lemos is averaging 4.87 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. She is absorbing 4.40 strikes and has a striking defense of 48%.
Rodriguez is a heavy favorite in this fight, but Lemos should still be considered a live dog, given her recent success. Lemos has won majority of her fights by finish, but Rodriguez has never lost by finish. Rodriguez has seen 8 of her 10 UFC fights go the distance, therefore backing this fight to also go the distance will be the play.
Daniel Rodriguez ML over Neil Magny (-105)
Daniel Rodriguez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-2. He is 8-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Li Jingliang by split decision back in September of this year. Rodriguez is averaging 7.75 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. He is absorbing 5.35 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. He is a decent grappler, averaging 0.72 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Rodriguez has a takedown accuracy of 55% and a takedown defense of 73%.
This fight is very evenly matched with both guys having had success in the UFC. Rodriguez is currently on a 4-fight winning streak, while Neil Magny has been slightly inconsistent over his last 4 fights, just 2-2. Rodriguez has the superior striking, therefore backing him to win will be the play.
Grant Dawson vs Mark Madsen – Fight to go the Distance – No (+140)
Grant Dawson comes into this fight with an MMA record of 18-1-1. He is a perfect 7-0-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Jared Gordon by submission back in April of this year. Dawson is averaging 3.17 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. He is absorbing 2.56 strikes and has a striking defense of 45%. Grappling will likely be his preferred method of fighting, averaging 3.97 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.4 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 34% and his takedown defense is 40%.
Mark Madsen comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-0. He is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Vinc Pichel by unanimous decision back in April of this year. Madsen is averaging 3.77 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47%. He is absorbing 3.92 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. His grappling is where he will look to dominate, averaging 3.90 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 66% and he has a takedown defense of 50%.
Dawson is a heavy favorite, but we cannot ignore that fact that Madsen is still undefeated. Madsen has seen 6 of his 12 career fights end inside the distance, while Dawson has seen 17 of his 20 career fights do the same. Of Dawson’s 8 UFC fights, 5 of them have ended inside the distance. This should be a fast-paced fight as both guys can win by knockout and submission. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the lean.
Make sure you also read our UFC Fight Night 214 four-fight parlay (+436 odds!)
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