Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 211 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a women’s strawweight fight between Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for this card, with odds of +591 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 211 predictions for the full 13-fight slate.
Randy Brown vs Francisco Trinaldo: Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-120)
Randy Brown is the overwhelming favorite in this fight, but Francisco Trinaldo can never be counted out due to his experience. Trinaldo has seen his last 3 fights go the distance and 8 of his last 10 do the same. He has also never lost by KO/TKO, which is Brown’s best method for winning. Brown has seen his last 2 fights go the distance after a run of fights that ended by finish. He has also lost by finish just 3 times in his career and not since 2020. Both of these guys should be able to hold up for three rounds, therefore backing this fight to go the distance will be the play.
Raoni Barcelos ML over Trevin Jones (-230)
Raoni Barcelos comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-3. He is 5-2 in the UFC, most recently losing to Victor Henry by unanimous decision back in January of this year. Barcelos is averaging 5.98 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 5.64 strikes and has a striking defense of 61%. His grappling is solid as well, averaging 1.66 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 43% and his takedown defense is 92%.
Barcelos is a huge favorite here, but still looks to be the right play. He has superior grappling and striking, while Trevin Jones has struggled to land many strikes. For that reason, backing Barcelos will be the play.
John Castaneda ML over Daniel Santos (-180)
John Castaneda comes into this fight with an MMA record of 19-5. He is 3-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Miles Johns by submission back in February of this year. Castaneda is averaging 4.38 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. He is absorbing 4.53 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%. His grappling is decent at best, averaging 0.65 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 22% and his takedown defense is 63%.
Castaneda is a heavy favorite in this fight, but looks to be the right side. Daniel Santos did not show much in his UFC debut and Castaneda has the edge in striking and grappling. For that reason, backing him to win will be the play.
Joaquin Silva ML over Jesse Ronson (-145)
Joaquin Silva comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-4. He is 4-3 in the UFC, most recently losing to Ricky Glenn by KO/TKO. Silva is averaging 3.90 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 37%. He is absorbing 4.55 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%. Her grappling is sub-par, averaging just 0.23 takedowns per every 15 minutes. She has a takedown accuracy of 50% and a takedown defense of 64%.
Silva is a moderate-sized favorite, but because he has the better striking and Jesse Ronson has yet to win a UFC fight, backing him looks to be worth a play.
Parlay these four UFC Fight Night 211 predictions for a potential payout at +591 odds!
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