Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 211 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a women’s strawweight fight between Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 211 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 211 predictions for picks for each fight on the main and preliminary card. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
UFC Fight Night 211 Main Card Best Bets
Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan: Fight to go the Distance – Yes (+140)
Mackenzie Dern comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-2. She is 7-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Tecia Torres by split decision back in April of this year. Dern is averaging 3.16 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 35%. She is absorbing 4.35 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%.
Yan Xiaonan comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-2. She is 6-2 in the UFC, most recently losing to Marina Rodriguez by split decision back in March of this year. Xiaonan is averaging 5.66 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. She is absorbing 3.77 strikes and has a striking defense of 62%.
Dern is a heavy favorite in this fight, but Xiaonan has been solid enough to remain as a live dog. Xiaonan has seen 7 of her 8 UFC fights end by decision and has only ever lost by submission once in her career. This was back in 2010 though and she has certainly improved her takedown defense since then. Taking away Dern’s submission ability will give Xianonan a much-needed edge as Dern has won majority of her fights by submission. Of Dern’s 9 UFC fights, 5 have gone the distance, so for that reason, backing this fight to do the same will be the play.
Mike Davis vs Viacheslav Borshchev: Fight to go the Distance – No (-135)
Mike Davis is the heavy favorite, but Viacheslav Borschev should still be considered a live dog based on his finishing ability. He has won 5 fights by finish, all 5 coming by KO/TKO. This also includes 4 of his last 5 fights that have ended by finish. Davis has seen 9 of his 11 career fights end inside the distance, including 4 of his last 5 fights. For that reason, backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be the play.
Make sure you also read our UFC Fight Night 211 four-fight parlay (+591 odds!)
UFC Fight Night 211 Preliminary Card Best Bet
Brendan Allen ML over Krzysztof Jotko (+105)
Brendan Allen comes into this fight with an MMA record of 19-5. He is 8-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Jacob Malkoun by unanimous decision back in June of this year. Allen is averaging 4.15 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. He is absorbing 4.18 strikes and has a striking defense of 44%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.20 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.4 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 41% and a takedown defense of 50%.
This fight looks to be evenly matched, but Allen looks to be the right side due to his superior striking. He also has similar grappling to Krzysztof Jotko, but is much more successful at submitting his opponents. With more ways to win this fight, backing Allen will be the play.
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