Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 209 takes place on Saturday at the Accor Arena in Paris, France. This card features a heavyweight fight between Ciryl Gane and Tai Tuivasa as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 209 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 209 predictions for picks for each fight on the main and preliminary card. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
UFC Fight Night 209 main card best bet
Ciryl Gane vs Tai Tuivasa – Fight to end by KO/TKO (-125)
Ciryl Gane comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-1. He is 7-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to Francis Ngannou by unanimous decision back in January of this year. Gane is averaging 4.83 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 58%. He is absorbing just 2.27 strikes and has a striking defense of 62%.
Tai Tuivasa comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-3. He is 8-3 in the UFC, most recently beating Derrick Lewis by TKO/KO back in February of this year. Tuivasa is averaging 4.54 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. He is absorbing 3.56 strikes and has a striking defense of 48%.
Gane is an overwhelming favorite, but Tuivasa has tremendous power and should not be taken lightly. Tuivasa has won 13 of his 14 fights by KO/TKO, including his last 5 fights in a row. Gane has seen just 4 of his 11 fights end by KO/TKO, however; with the power that both of these guys have, backing this fight to also end by KO/TKO looks to be well worth a play.
Make sure you also read our UFC Fight Night 209 four-fight parlay (+381 odds!)
UFC Fight Night 209 Preliminary Best Bets
Benoit Saint Denis vs Gabriel Miranda – Fight to end by submission (+120)
Both guys in this fight love to win their fights by submission. Gabriel Miranda has 15 wins by submission and Benoit Saint Denis has 8 wins by submission out of his 9 career wins. Saint Denis has seen 3 of his last 4 fights end by submission, while Miranda has seen 7 of his last 8 fights end by submission. For that reason, backing this fight to also end by tap out will be the play.
Christian Quinonez ML (-105) over Khalid Taha
Christian Quinonez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-3. He is 1-0 in the UFC, though he will be making his official UFC debut here. His only UFC fight was in the Dana White Contender Series, where he beat Xiao Long by unanimous decision back in October of 2021. Quinonez is averaging 5.07 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. He is absorbing 5.20 strikes and has a striking defense is 60%. His grappling has also been solid so far, averaging 1.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 100% and has a takedown defense of 100%.
Khalid Taha is a small favorite in this fight, but has had a rough start to his UFC career, collecting only 1 win. Quinonez has the better striking and grappling and even though this was in a Contender Series fight, backing Quinonez will still be the play.
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