Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
March Madness is getting most of the attention, but it’s not the only thing going on. UFC Fight Night 204 takes place on Saturday at the O2 Arena in London, England. The card will feature a heavyweight fight as the main event.
Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for UFC Fight Night 204 that has odds of +619. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 204 predictions for the full 12-fight card.
Luana Carolina ML (+120) vs Molly McCann
Luana Carolina comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-2. She is 4-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Loopy Godinez by unanimous decision back in October of 2021. She is averaging 4.49 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. He is absorbing 2.85 strikes and has a striking defense of 48%. She has not showed much grappling, though is averaging 1.2 submission attempts per every 15 minutes. Her takedown defense is also 88%.
Molly McCann won her last fight, but has been somewhat inconsistent in the UFC. Carolina has had an excellent start to the UFC, including that big upset win over Loopy Godinez last time out. She is a small underdog here as well, but has shown enough standing up and on the ground to back here.
Ilia Topuria win by Finish (-280) vs Jai Herbert
Ilia Topuria comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-0. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Ryan Hall by KO/TKOback in July of 2021. Topuria is averaging 2.77 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 1.92 strikes and has a striking defense of 64%. Grappling is where Topuria will likely excel, averaging 3.35 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 3.4 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 55%, while his takedown defense is 100%.
Topuria is a massive favorite here and while him winning looks to be the obvious play, his price is far too high. He has won 10 of his 11 career fights by finish and all of his UFC fights by finish, while Jai Herbert has lost 3 times by finish. For that reason, backing Topuria to continue his unbeaten run in the UFC by finish will be the play.
Mike Grundy to win by Submission or Decision (-165) vs Makwan Amirkhani
Mike Grundy comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-3. He is averaging just 2.14 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. He is absorbing 4.56 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%. Grundy would much rather grapple in this fight, averaging 3.78 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 26%, and a takedown defense of 50%.
Grundy has 11 combined wins by submission or decision, while Makwan Amirkhani has lost 4 of his last 5 fights overall. Grundy has just 1 win by KO/TKO, so to reduce the juice, backing him by submission or decision will be the play.
Sergey Pavlovich to win by KO/TKO (-200) vs Shamil Abdurakhimov
Sergey Pavlovich comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-1. He is 2-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Maurice Greene by KO/TKO back in October of 2019. He is averaging 6.55 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. He is absorbing 4.59 strikes and has a striking defense of 44%.
Pavlovich is a huge favorite here, so while a win looks likely, it would not be recommended to back him on the money line. He has 11 wins by KO/TKO, including both of his UFC wins, so backing him to win by KO/TKO will be the play here.
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