Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 197 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will feature a featherweight fight as the main event.
Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for UFC Fight Night 197 that pays at odds of +540. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 197 predictions for the full 11-fight card.
Marc Diakiese vs Rafael Alves – Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-165)
Marc Diakiese comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-4. Diakiese is averaging 3.08 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 39%. He is absorbing 2.79 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling is solid, averaging 2.16 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Diakiese has a takedown accuracy of 36% and his takedown defense is 62%.
Rafael Alves comes in with an MMA record of 19-10. Alves is averaging 2.01 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. He is absorbing 3.71 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%.
With both fighters being relatively low volume strikers, this bout has the makings of one that will go the full 3 rounds. Diakiese has seen his last 4 UFC fights go the distance and 5 of his last 6, so backing this fight to do the same will be the play.
Sean Woodson vs Collin Anglin – Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-190)
Sean Woodson comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-1. Woodson is averaging 5.27 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43%. He is absorbing 3.94 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. He has shown little to no grappling in the UFC, but has a takedown defense of 81%.
Collin Anglin comes in with an MMA record of 8-2. He is averaging 5.18 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. He is absorbing 4.40 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is solid as well, averaging 2.75 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 80% and his takedown defense is 100%.
Woodson is a huge favorite here, but is too risky of a play against a guy who has shown he can grapple. Woodson has seen majority of his fights go the distance with 5 wins by decision. He has lost just once by submission in his career, so backing this fight to go the distance will be the play.
Cynthia Calvillo Money Line (-135) vs Andrea Lee
Cynthia Calvillo comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-3-1. Calvillo is averaging 4.24 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. She is absorbing 3.76 strikes and has a striking defense of 65%. Her grappling is also solid, averaging 1.77 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same time period. She has a takedown accuracy of 44% and a takedown defense of 71%.
Calvillo has lost 2 fights in a row, while Andrea Lee is only 1-3 in her last 4 UFC fights. Calvillo has been able to defend takedowns more effectively, which is a big part of what Lee will be trying to do. For that reason, backing Calvillo will be the play.
Felicia Spencer vs Leah Letson – Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-200)
Backing Felicia Spencer at a massive price is a risky play, while backing Leah Letson as the underdog is also unappealing. Spencer has seen 3 of her 5 UFC fights go the distance; Letson saw her lone Ultimate Fighter fight go the distance as well. This looks to be a fight that will be somewhat slow-paced, so backing this fight to go the distance will be the play.
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