Matthew Lowrimore
UFC 313 takes place on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. It features a UFC Light Heavyweight title fight between Alex Pereira and Magomed Ankalaev as the Main Event.
Here are my favorite UFC parlay picks for this card. Also be sure to check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
Justin Gaethje ML over Rafael Fiziev (+136)
King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy – Fight to go the Distance – No (-210)
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev – Fight to go the Distance – No (-180)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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Justin Gaethje ML over Rafael Fiziev (+140)
Justin Gaethje enters this fight with an MMA record of 25-5 and 8-5 in the UFC. He is averaging 6.78 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 59%. Gaethje absorbs 7.46 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling ability is not nearly as good, averaging only 0.11 takedowns every 15 minutes. However, Gaethje has a strong takedown defense of 75%.
Fiziev is the moderate favorite in this fight but Gaethje looks to be a solid betting option to pull the upset. Gaethje has the clear advantage in striking and he is in better form, having won 2 of his last 3 UFC fights compared to Fiziev, who has won just 1 of his last 3 UFC fights, which includes 2 losses in a row. Because of this, backing Gaethje to win and pull the upset will be our play.
You can also read our expert’s UFC 313 best bets
King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy – Fight to go the Distance – No (-210)
The first fight on the Main Card at UFC 313 will see King Green take on Mauricio Ruffy in the UFC Lightweight division. Green enters this fight with an MMA record of 32-16-1 and 17-13-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 6.43 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. Green is absorbing 3.73 strikes and has a striking defense of 62%. His grappling has been decent throughout his career, averaging 1.23 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 39% and a takedown defense of 74%.
Ruffy enters this fight with an MMA record of 11-1 and 3-0 in the UFC. He averages 4.70 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 59%. Ruffy absorbs 4.76 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. He has not shown any grappling ability but has a takedown defense of 100%.
Given that Ruffy is one of the biggest favorites on this card, we will instead look at this fight to end inside the distance. Green has seen 4 of his last 5 UFC fights end inside the distance, while Ruffy has seen 2 of his 3 UFC fights do the same. Based on the fact that both fighters have had a high finish rate recently, backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be our play.
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev – Fight to go the Distance – No (-180)
Curtis Blaydes enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-5 and 13-5 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.54 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. Blaydes is absorbing 1.91 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. His grappling has been elite throughout his UFC career, averaging 5.69 takedowns every 15 minutes. Blaydes has a takedown accuracy of 53% and a takedown defense of 31%.
Blaydes is the overwhelming favorite in this fight, therefore, we will be looking for this fight to end inside the distance. Blaydes has seen his last 5 UFC fights end inside the distance, while Rizvan Kuniev has seen both of his UFC fights end inside the distance. Based on this, backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be our play.
Don’t miss our UFC picks for every main card fight at UFC 313
