Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 311 takes place on Saturday at Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. This card features a UFC Lightweight title fight between Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan as the Main Event and a UFC Bantamweight title fight between Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov as the Co-Main Event.
Here are our UFC 311 best bets, which will include three fights on the Main Card. Be sure to also check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the UFC 311 Main Card fights scheduled for Saturday.
UFC 311 Main Card Best Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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Islam Makhachev Win by Finish over Arman Tsarukyan (+215)
Islam Makhachev enters this fight with an MMA record of 26-1 and 15-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 2.65 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 59%. Makhachev absorbs 1.54 strikes and has a striking defense of 61%. His grappling has also been elite, averaging 3.19 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same period. Makhachev has a takedown accuracy of 53% and a takedown defense of 90%.
Makhachev is the significant favorite in this fight, therefore we will be looking at him to win this fight by any finish. Makhachev has won 7 of his last 8 UFC fights by finish, therefore backing him to do the same in this title fight will be our best bet.
Umar Nurmagomedov Win by Decision over Merab Dvalishvili (-135)
Umar Nurmagomedov enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-0 and 6-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.46 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 63%. Nurmagomedov absorbs 1.36 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 63%. His grappling has also been elite, averaging 3.98 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 50% and his takedown defense is 100%.
Dvalishvili enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-4 and 11-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.35 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. Dvalishvili is absorbing 2.31 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%. His grappling is elite, however, averaging 6.09 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 36% and a takedown defense of 80%.
Nurmagomedov is the clear favorite, so instead we will be looking at how Nurmagomedov might win. He has won 3 of his last 4 UFC fights by decision, while Dvalishvili has only lost by finish once in his UFC career. Based on the fact that Dvalishvili rarely loses by finish and Nurmagomedov has mostly won by decision recently, backing him to do so in this fight will be our best bet.
You can also read our UFC 311 parlay at +250 odds!
Reinier de Ridder ML over Kevin Holland (-112)
Reinier de Ridder enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-2 and 1-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.24 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. De Ridder absorbs 2.56 strikes and has a striking defense of 44%. Through one UFC fight, his grappling has been elite, averaging 6.39 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 38% and a takedown defense of 100%.
De Ridder is the small favorite in this fight and looks to be the best betting option. He had an impressive UFC debut, plus he has superior grappling. On top of that, Holland is just 1-3 in his last 4 UFC fights, therefore backing De Ridder to win will be our best bet.
Check out the rest of our UFC picks for every main card fight at UFC 311!
