Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 309 takes place on Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. This card features a UFC Heavyweight title fight between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic as the Main Event.
Here are our UFC 309 best bets, which will include two fights on the Main Card and one on the Preliminary Card. Be sure to also check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the UFC 309 Main Card fights scheduled for Saturday.
UFC 309 Main Card Best Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler – Over 1.5 Rounds (-105)
The Co-Main Event at UFC 309 will see Charles Oliveira take on Michael Chandler. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Oliveira enters this fight with an MMA record of 34-10 and he is 22-10 in the UFC. On the other side, Chandler enters this fight with an MMA record of 23-8 and he is 4-3 in the UFC.
Oliveira is the heavy favorite in this fight therefore we will be looking for this fight to go over 1.5 rounds. Chandler has seen 2 of his last 4 UFC fights go over 1.5 rounds, while Oliveira has seen 3 of his last 5 UFC fights do the same. For that reason, backing this fight to go over 1.5 rounds will be our best bet.
Mauricio Ruffy Win by KO/TKO over James Llontop (-150)
The first fight on the Main Card at UFC 309 will see Mauricio Ruffy take on James Llontop. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Ruffy enters this fight with an MMA record of 10-1 and he is 2-0 in the UFC. He averages 4.88 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 59%. Ruffy absorbs 3.80 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. He has not shown any grappling ability but has a takedown defense of 100%.
Ruffy is the overwhelming favorite in this fight, so instead we will be looking for how Ruffy will win. He has won both of his UFC fights by KO/TKO so even though Llontop has never lost by KO/TKO, backing Ruffy to win by this method will be our best bet as all of his career wins are by this method.
You can also read our UFC 309 parlay at +535 odds!
UFC 309 Preliminary Card Best Bet
Jhonata Diniz ML over Marcin Tybura (+124)
Jhonata Diniz enters this fight with an MMA record of 8-0 and he is 3-0 in the UFC. He averages 4.09 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. Diniz absorbs 2.75 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. He has not shown any grappling ability but has a takedown defense of 70%.
Marcin Tybura is a moderate-sized favorite in this fight, but Diniz looks to be the better betting option. While Diniz has not shown grappling ability, he has superior striking compared to Tybura and has been perfect in his career. Because Tybura has been a little inconsistent in some of his recent fights, backing Diniz to win will be our best bet.
Check out the rest of our UFC picks for every main card fight at UFC 309!
