Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 306 takes place on Saturday night at the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a UFC Bantamweight title fight between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili as the Main Event and a UFC Women’s Flyweight title fight between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko as the Co-Main Event.
Here are our UFC 306 best bets, which will include 3 fights on the Main Card. Be sure to also check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the UFC 306 Main Card fights scheduled for Saturday night.
UFC 306 Main Card Best Bets
Merab Dvalishvili ML over Sean O’Malley (+110)
The Main Event at UFC 306 will see Sean O’Malley take on Merab Dvalishvili in the UFC Bantamweight division and will be for the UFC Bantamweight title.
Dvalishvili enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-4 and 10-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.50 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. Dvalishvili is absorbing 2.37 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. His grappling is elite, however, averaging 6.43 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 36% and a takedown defense of 80%.
O’Malley is a slight favorite because he is the one holding the Bantamweight title. That said, Dvalishvili’s grappling is too strong to ignore, therefore backing Dvalishvili to pull off the small upset will be our best bet.
You can also read our UFC 306 parlay at +860 odds!
Valentina Shevchenko ML over Alexa Grasso (+114)
The Co-Main Event at UFC 306 will see Alexa Grasso take on Valentina Shevchenko in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division and a fight for the Flyweight title.
Grasso enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-3-1 and 8-3-1. She is averaging 4.67 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43%. Grasso is absorbing 3.95 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. Her grappling is not as strong, averaging just 0.41 takedowns every 15 minutes. Grasso has a takedown accuracy of 45% and a takedown defense of 59%.
Grasso is the small favorite as she is the one holding the Flyweight title. That said, Shevchenko is a much stronger grappler and has a much better striking defense. For that reason, backing Shevchenko to win and claim the title will be our best bet.
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes – Fight to go the Distance – No (-135)
The third fight on the Main Card at UFC 306 will see Brian Ortega take on Diego Lopes in the UFC Featherweight division.
Ortega enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-3 and 8-3 in the UFC. On the other side, Lopes enters this fight with an MMA record of 25-6 and he is 4-2 in the UFC.
Lopes is a heavy favorite, so instead we will be looking for this fight to end inside the distance. Ortega has seen 9 of his 11 UFC fights end inside the distance, while Lopes has seen 3 of his 6 UFC fights do the same. Because both fighters have a high finish rate, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our best bet.
Check out the rest of our UFC picks for every main card fight at UFC 306!
