Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 290 takes place on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a featherweight title fight between Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez as the Main Event and a flyweight title fight between Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja in the Co-Main Event.
Here is our favorite UFC parlay for this card, with odds of +384 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 290 predictions for all of the Main Card and Preliminary Card fights.
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Jalin Turner Win by Finish over Dan Hooker (-165)
Jalin Turner comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-6. He is 7-3 in the UFC, most recently losing to Mateusz Gamrot by split decision back in March of this year. Turner is averaging 5.63 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. He is absorbing 3.79 strikes and has a striking defense of 43%. His grappling is decent at best, averaging 0.89 takedowns per every 15 minutes, and 1.6 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 66% and his takedown defense is 74%.
Turner is a heavy favorite in this fight and even though Dan Hooker got a nice win in his most recent fight, he has still been too inconsistent as of late. Hooker is 2-4 in his last 6 UFC fights, while Turner has won all of his fights by finish. For that reason, backing Turner to win by finish will be our play.
Bo Nickal Win by Submission over Val Woodburn (-225)
Bo Nickal comes into this fight with an MMA record of 4-0. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Jamie Pickett by submission back in March of this year. Nickal is averaging 1.67 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. He is absorbing 0.21 strikes and has a striking defense of 66%. He is also an elite grappler, averaging 12.50 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 15.6 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 57%.
Nickal is by far the biggest favorite on this card and may even be one of the biggest favorites in the history of the UFC. That being said, there is no way to back him on the money line. He does have 3 wins by submission, and each of his last 3 fights have been won by this method. With very few ways to play this fight, backing Nickal to win by submission will be our bet.
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Tatsuro Taira Win by Submission over Edgar Chairez (-225)
Tatsuro Taira comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-0. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Jesus Aguilar by submission back in February of this year. Taira is averaging 2.79 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 64%. He is absorbing 1.05 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling has been solid so far, averaging 2.62 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 3.7 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 35% and his takedown defense is 60%.
Taira is too big of a favorite to back on the money line, so looking to him to win by a specific method looks a little more reasonable. He has won 7 times in his career by submission, including 5 of his last 6 fights. For that reason, backing Taira to win by submission will be our play.
Vitor Petrino ML over Marcin Prachnio (-225)
Vitor Petrino comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-0. He is 2-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Anton Turkalj by unanimous decision back in March of this year. Petrino is averaging 3.43 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 2.16 strikes and has a striking defense of 47%. His grappling has been elite so far, averaging 4.45 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 77% and a takedown defense of 66%.
While Petrino is a heavy favorite, he may still be worth backing as he has yet to shown a weakness. Petrino also has the superior grappling ability, so backing him to win will be our play.
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