Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 283 takes place on Saturday at the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This card features a light heavyweight title fight between Glover Teixeira and Jamahal Hill as the Main Event and a Flyweight title fight Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno as the Co-Main Event.
Here is our favorite parlay for this card, with odds of +532 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 283 predictions for the full 15-fight card.
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Gilbert Burns vs Neil Magny – Over 1.5 rounds (-190)
Gilbert Burns is one of the heaviest favorites on this card, making his money line not worth the risk — especially with an experienced fighter such as Neil Magny on the other side. It should be worth noted that Magny’s last 9 consecutive fights have gone over 1.5 rounds, while Burns has seen his last 4 UFC fights do the same, and 8 of his last 9. This is a little bit of a steep price, but both guys should be able to hold up until at least halfway through the second round, therefore backing this fight to go over 1.5 rounds will be the lean.
Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira – Fight to end by KO/TKO (-165)
Gregory Rodrigues is a heavy favorite in this fight, so backing his money line would not be worth the risk. He has won 2 fights in a row by KO/TKO and has 8 wins by that method in his career. Brunno Ferreira on the other hand, has won 6 of his 9 career fights by KO/TKO, which includes his last 4 fights in a row. For that reason, backing this fight to also end by KO/TKO will be the play.
Gabriel Bonfim ML over Mounir Lazzez (-165)
Gabriel Bonfim comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-0. He is 1-0 in the UFC, though this will be his official UFC debut. His lone UFC fight was in the Dan White Contender Series, where he beat Trey Waters by submission in September 2022. Bonfim is averaging 6.17 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 38%. He is absorbing 4.74 strikes and has a striking defense of 72%. His grappling has been elite through one fight, averaging 3.56 takedowns every 15 minutes and 3.6 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 100% and he has not been taken down in the UFC so far.
Even with this being the UFC debut for Bonfim, he is the favorite. His grappling looks to be the biggest difference, considering he has 10 wins by submission in his career so far. For that reason, backing Bonfim to win his debut looks to be the best play.
Jailton Almeida win by submission over Shamil Abdurakhimov (-165)
Jailton Almeida comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-2. He is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Anton Turkalj by submission in September 2022. Almeida is averaging 3.56 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. He is absorbing 0.43 strikes and has a striking defense of 11%. His grappling has been elite so far, averaging 7.18 takedowns every 15 minutes and 3.2 submission attempts during the same time. His takedown accuracy is 75% and his takedown defense is 50%.
Almeida is easily the biggest favorite on this card, making his money line completely unplayable even though a win is very likely. He does have 11 submission wins in his career, which includes 3 of his 4 UFC fights. So, while Shamil Abdurakhimov has never lost by submission, Almeida’s grappling ability is far too strong to ignore. He has won 6 of his last 8 fights overall by submission, therefore backing the same here has to be the play.
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