Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 282 takes place on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a light heavyweight title fight between Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC 282 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC 282 predictions for picks for each fight on the main card and preliminary card. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
UFC 282 Main Card best bets
Paddy Pimblett Win by Finish over Jared Gordon (-110)
Paddy Pimblett comes into this fight with an MMA record of 19-3. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Jordan Leavitt by submission back in July of this year. Pimblett is averaging 4.19 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 3.00 strikes and has a striking defense of 41%. His grappling has been solid so far, averaging 1.88 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 4.7 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 40% and his takedown defense is 60%.
Pimblett is the clear favorite in this fight, so it is not surprising to see a large price tag on him. He has won all 3 of his UFC fights by finish, while Jared Gordon’s 5 losses have all come by finish. Because Pimblett has the superior striking and grappling, backing him to win by finish will be the play.
Ilia Topuria over Bryce Mitchell (-140)
Ilia Topuria comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-0. He is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Jai Herbert by KO/TKO back in March of this year. Topuria is averaging 2.87 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 2.28 strikes and has a striking defense of 64%. Grappling is also prominent for Topuria, as he is averaging 3.15 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 2.6 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 45%, while his takedown defense is 100%.
This fight is relatively even, but Topuria looks to be the right side. He has better striking and as good as Bryce Mitchell is on the ground, Topuria has been even better. He is especially superior when it comes to defending takedowns, so for that reason backing Topuria will be the play.
UFC 282 Preliminary Card best bet
Erik Silva over TJ Brown (-110)
Erik Silva comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-1. He is 1-0 in the UFC, though this will be his official UFC debut. His only other UFC fight was in the Dana White Contender Series where he beat Anvar Boynazarov by KO/TKO back in August of this year. Silva is averaging 7.83 significant strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 70%. He is not absorbing any strikes through his first fight, and has a striking defense of 100%. Silva has been an elite grappler so far, averaging 9.78 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 100% and has not needed to defend a takedown through that lone Contender Series fight.
This fight is basically a pick em’, and even though this is the UFC debut for Silva he looks to be the right side. He has the superior striking and grappling, therefore backing Silva to start his UFC career with a win will be the play.
Make sure you also read our UFC 282 three-fight parlay (+171 odds!)
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