Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC 281 takes place on Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. This card features a middleweight title fight between Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira as the Main Event and a women’s strawweight title fight between Carla Esparza and Zhang Weili as the Co-Main Event.
Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for this card, with odds of +551 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 281 predictions for the full 14-fight card.
Carla Esparza vs Zhang Weili – Fight to go the Distance – No (-150)
Weili Zhang is actually a significant favorite even though she is not the one who is holding the belt. She has seen 19 of her 25 career fights by finish, which includes 4 of her 8 UFC fights. Carla Esparza has seen 11 of her 25 career fights end inside the distance, which includes just 4 of her 14 UFC fights. Despite Esparza not having a high finish rate, Zhang does, and should push the pace of this fight. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chandler – Fight to end by KO/TKO (-125)
Dustin Poirier is the heavy favorite in the fight, though Michael Chandler should be considered a live dog with the amount of power he has. Chandler has seen 15 of his career fights end by KO/TKO, including 6 of his last 7 fights. Poirier has seen 16 of his 35 career fights end by the same method, which includes 2 of his last 3 fights. Because both guys have recently seen the majority of their fights end by KO/TKO, backing the same here will be the play.
Chris Gutierrez ML over Frankie Edgar (-230)
Chris Gutierrez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 18-3-2. He is 6-1-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Batgerel Danaa by KO/TKO back in March of this year. Gutierrez is averaging 4.69 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 58%. He is absorbing 2.61 strikes and has a striking defense of 63%. His grappling is not as strong though, averaging 0.44 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 37% and his takedown defense is 73%.
Gutierrez is a heavy favorite in this fight, which is warranted given that he has been far more consistent. Frankie Edgar has lost 4 of his last 5 fights, while Gutierrez has not lost since 2018. Gutierrez also has the better striking, so backing him to win will be the play.
Andre Petroski ML over Wellington Turman (-195)
Andre Petroski comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-2. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Nick Maximov by submission back in May of this year. Petroski is averaging 4.07 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 61%. He is absorbing 2.05 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. His grappling is also very good, averaging 4.10 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 4.1 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 47% and his takedown defense is 100%.
Petroski is a big favorite in this fight, but still looks to be the right side. He is the superior striker and grappler, so backing him to continue his unbeaten start in the UFC looks to the best option.
Parlay these four UFC 281 predictions for a potential payout at +551 odds!
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