Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC 281 takes place on Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. This card features a middleweight title fight between Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira as the Main Event and a women’s strawweight title fight between Carla Esparza and Zhang Weili as the Co-Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC 281 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC 281 predictions for picks for each fight on the main card and preliminary card. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
UFC 281 Main Card best bets
Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira – Fight to go the Distance – No (-110)
Israel Adesanya is a heavy favorite in this fight, which makes sense given he is the one holding the title. Alex Pereira however; is a prolific striker, which makes him a live dog with the power he has shown recently. Adesanya has won 15 fights in his career by KO/TKO, while Pereira has won 5 of his 6 fights by the same method. Even though Adesanya has won his last 3 fights by decision, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play as Pereira loves to fight at a quick pace, and even has the knockout ability to win this fight. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
Claudio Puelles ML over Dan Hooker (+125)
Claudio Puelles comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-2. He is 5-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Clay Guida by submission back in April of this year. Puelles is averaging 1.99 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 2.89 strikes and has a striking defense of 46%. His grappling is solid, averaging 2.74 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.4 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 38% and his takedown defense is 60%.
Dan Hooker is the moderate favorite in this fight, though he has been far too inconsistent recently to trust. He has lost 4 of his last 5 fights, so for that reason, backing Puelles to win will be the play.
UFC 281 Preliminary Card best bet
Ottman Azaitar ML over Matt Frevola (-150)
Ottman Azaitar comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-0. He is 2-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Khama Worthy by KO/TKO back in September of 2020. Azaitar is averaging 8.43 significant strikes and has a striking accuracy of 57%. He is absorbing 1.76 strikes and has a striking defense of 67%. He has not shown any grappling ability, but does have a takedown defense of 100%.
Azaitar is a moderate sized favorite and given that he is undefeated, this price is warranted. He has not fought in the UFC in over 2 years, but has the superior grappling and should be able to limit Matt Frevola’s grappling. For that reason, backing Azaitar to win and remain unbeaten will be the play.
Make sure you also read our UFC 281 four-fight parlay (+551 odds!)
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