Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 280 takes place on Saturday at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. This card features a lightweight title fight between Charles Oliveira and Islam Makhachev as the Main Event and a bantamweight title fight between Aljamain Sterling and TJ Dillashaw as the Co-Main Event.
Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for this card, with odds of +434 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 280 predictions for the full 13-fight slate.
Islam Makhachev ML over Charles Oliveira (-190)
Islam Makhachev comes into this fight with an MMA record of 22-1. He is 11-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Bobby Green by KO/TKO back in February of this year. Makhachev is averaging 2.27 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. More impressively, he is absorbing 0.84 strikes and has a striking defense of 68%. His grappling has been elite in the UFC, averaging 3.41 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 65% and his takedown defense is 88%.
It is not too surprising that Makhachev is a heavy favorite in this fight given that Charles Oliveira has been undervalued over his last couple of fights. He has proven time and time again that he deserves to carry the Lightweight belt. However, Makhachev has been a buzzsaw since joining the UFC and has lost just once since 2015. He has never lost by submission, which is one of Oliveira’s main strengths. This should be a close fight, but because Makhachev has absorbed very little damage and has a near perfect takedown defense, backing him to win will be the play as a new Lightweight champion can be crowned.
Aljamain Sterling ML over TJ Dillashaw (-180)
Aljamain Sterling comes into this fight with an MMA record of 21-3. He is 13-3 in the UFC, most recently beating Petr Yan by split decision to reclaim the Bantamweight title. Sterling is averaging 4.56 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. He is absorbing 2.24 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. Sterling is also known for his grappling ability, averaging 1.71 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 21% and his takedown defense is 41%.
Sterling is the favorite in this fight, which makes sense given he is the one holding the title. His striking volume is not as strong as TJ Dillashaw, but he absorbs less damage, and has a higher takedown volume despite the fact that his takedown accuracy and defense are not very strong. Sterling has won 7 fights in a row, so backing him to defend his title will be the play.
Mateusz Gamrot ML over Beneil Dariush (-190)
Mateusz Gamrot comes into this fight with an MMA record of 21-1. He is 4-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Arman Tsarukyan by unanimous decision back in June of this year. Gamrot is averaging 3.54 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 3.19 strikes and has a striking defense of 63%. His grappling has been much more effective, averaging 4.83 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 35% and his takedown defense is 90%.
Gamrot is a heavy favorite in this fight and looks to be the right side. He has superior grappling and has only ever lost by decision. He also has better takedown defense, so he should be able to control this fight, making him worth a play.
Manon Fiorot ML over Katlyn Chookagain (-210)
Manon Fiorot comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-1. She is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Jennifer Maia by unanimous decision back in March of this year. Fiorot is averaging 6.60 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. She is absorbing 2.52 strikes and has a striking defense of 70%. Her grappling is also solid, averaging 1.91 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 50% and her takedown defense is 83%.
Fiorot is a heavy favorite in this fight, but looks to be the right side. Her striking and grappling are superior and she has yet to lose a fight in the UFC. Even though Katlyn Chookagain has much more experience in the UFC, her grappling has been weak, so backing Fiorot to win will be the play.
Parlay these four UFC 280 predictions for a potential payout at +434 odds!
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