Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 280 takes place on Saturday at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. This card features a lightweight title fight between Charles Oliveira and Islam Makhachev as the Main Event and a bantamweight title fight between Aljamain Sterling and TJ Dillashaw as the Co-Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC 280 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC 280 predictions for picks for each fight on the main and preliminary card. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
UFC 280 Main Card Best Bet
Petr Yan vs Sean O’Malley – Fight to end by KO/TKO (+165)
Petr Yan comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-3. He is 8-2 in the UFC, most recently losing to Aljamain Sterling by split decision back in April of this year. Sterling is averaging 5.45 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 3.88 strikes and has a striking defense of 61%. Yan also has solid grappling ability, averaging 1.48 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 61% and his takedown defense is 90%.
Sean O’Malley comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-1. He is 8-1 in the UFC, most recently having his fight against Pedro Munhoz canceled due to an eye poke back in July of this year. O’Malley is averaging 7.75 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 62%. He is absorbing 3.48 strikes and has a striking defense of 64%. His grappling is not super strong, averaging only 0.54 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 50% and his takedown defense is 64%.
Yan is a heavy favorite in this fight, however; O’Malley has been nearly perfect and has a ton of power. He has won 11 times by KO/TKO, and his last 6 fights have ended by KO/TKO not including the fight that was canceled. Yan has won 7 times by KO/TKO, including 4 times in the UFC. For that reason, backing this fight to end by KO/TKO will be the play.
Make sure you also read our UFC 280 four-fight parlay (+434 odds!)
UFC 280 Preliminary Card Best Bets
Sean Brady ML over Belal Muhammad (-135)
Sean Brady comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-0. He is 5-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Michael Chiesa by unanimous decision back in November of 2021. Brady is averaging 3.91 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. He is absorbing 3.22 strikes and has a striking defense of 62%. His grappling is also very good, averaging 3.22 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 60% and his takedown defense is 87%.
Brady is moderate favorite in this fight, and because he is undefeated in his career, he looks to be the right side. Brady is the better striker and the better grappler, so for that reason, backing him to win and remain undefeated will be the play.
Karol Rosa Win by Decision over Lina Lansberg (-120)
Karol Rosa comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-4. She is 4-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to Sara McMann by unanimous decision back in March of this year. Rosa is averaging 6.65 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. She is absorbing 4.45 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. Her grappling is also good, averaging 1.40 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Rosa has a takedown accuracy of 50% and her takedown defense is 72%.
Rosa is a significant favorite, so her money line is much too risky to back. However, 9 of her 15 career wins have come by decision, including all 4 of her UFC wins. Lina Lansberg has lost 3 of her 5 UFC fights by decision, including her last 2 in a row. For that reason, backing Rosa to win by decision will be the play.
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