Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 274 takes place on Saturday at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. This card will feature a title fight in the lightweight division and the women’s strawweight division.
Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for this event, with odds of +432. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 274 predictions for the full 15-fight card.
Rose Namajunas ML (-200) vs Carla Esparza
Rose Namajunas comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-4. She is 9-3 in the UFC, most recently beating Weili Zhang by unanimous decision back in November of 2021 to successfully defend her strawweight division. Namajunas is averaging 4.01 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. She is absorbing 3.88 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. Her grappling is decent as well, averaging 1.78 takedowns per every 15 minutes. She has a takedown accuracy of 56% and a takedown defense of 51%.
This is a rematch from all the way back in 2014, where Carla Esparza beat Namajunas by submission. Since then, Namajunas has gone 9-2 and has improved dramatically. She is the heavy favorite for a reason and clearly has the better striking. She also has not lost by submission since that lone loss and is better on the ground. For that reason, backing Namajunas to retain her strawweight title will be the play.
Michael Chandler vs Tony Ferguson – Fight to go the Distance – No (-200)
Michael Chandler is a massive favorite in this fight, which takes the money line out of play. Tony Ferguson is starting to become inconsistent, losing 3 consecutive fights in the UFC. Chandler has won 17 times by finish in his career, 3 of which have come in the UFC. Ferguson has 20 wins by finish himself, while Chandler has been vulnerable to being knocked out, losing 4 times by this method. For that reason, exact a fast-paced fight and back this one to end inside the distance.
Donald Cerrone vs Joe Lauzon – Fight to go the Distance – No (-250)
Donald Cerrone is a decent sized favorite in this fight, but the fact that he has not won since 2019 makes fading him a viable option. Joe Lauzon has not been the most consistent, either, losing 3 of his last 4 fights. It is more likely that this fight ends inside the distance, seeing that Cerrone has had 36 of his 52 career fights end by finish and Lauzon has had 35 of his 43 fights end by finish, as well. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
Tracy Cortez ML (-145) vs Melissa Gatto
Tracy Cortez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-1. She is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Justine Kish by split decision back in April of 2021. Cortez is averaging 3.85 significant strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 55%. She is absorbing 2.40 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. Her grappling is solid as well, averaging 3.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 46% and her takedown defense is 87%.
Both ladies have had perfect starts to their UFC careers, but they have done so in very different ways. Cortez has won all 4 of her UFC fights by decision, while Melissa Gatto has won both of her fights by KO/TKO. Cortez might not have the advantage while standing up, but her grappling has been far superior so far. Look for her to use takedowns to control this fight and back Cortez to move to 5-0 in the UFC.
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