Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC 272 takes place on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will feature a welterweight fight as the main event.
Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for UFC 272 that pays at odds of +422. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 272 predictions for the full 13-fight card.
Edson Barboza vs Bryce Mitchell ML (-155)
Bryce Mitchell comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-1. He is 5-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Andre Fili by unanimous decision back in October of 2020. Mitchell is averaging 2.29 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 61%. He is absorbing 1.46 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling has been much more prominent, averaging 3.26 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 2.3 submission attempts during the same time period.
Even though Mitchell has not fought in a long time, he still looks to be the right side here. His grappling has been far too elite, so even with a solid takedown defense, Edson Barboza is likely going to have issues here. Mitchell also does not absorb much damage at all, so backing him will be the play.
Kevin Holland vs Alex Oliveira – Fight to go the Distance – No (-175)
Combined these guys have lost 5 combined fights in a row. Alex Oliveira has lost 3 in a row and Kevin Holland 2 in a row with his last fight being a no contest. They both have 17 wins by finish in their careers and Olivera has 7 losses by finish as well. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be a play.
Serghei Spivac vs Greg Hardy – Fight to go the Distance – No (-225)
Even with a winning record in the UFC, Greg Hardy has not been very good at all. His chin is a concern and his grappling is not there. There is no denying that he has power though, considering he has won 6 of his 7 career fights by KO/TKO. Serghei Spivac is much more versatile, winning 5 times by KO/TKO and 6 times by submission. With both fighters having a high finish rate, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
Tim Elliot vs Tagir Ulanbekov ML (-250)
Tagir Ulanbekov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-1. He is 2-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Allan Nascimento by split decision back in October of 2021. Ulanbekov is averaging 2.13 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 39%. He is absorbing 2.40 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling will be his main focus, averaging 4.50 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Ulanbekov has a takedown accuracy of 56% and his takedown defense is 55%.
As good as Tim Elliot’s grappling has been, fading him here still looks to be the obvious choice. He is far too inconsistent and Ulanbekov has been impressive so far in the UFC. The price on Ulanbekov is high, but he is still worth playing to win this fight.
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