Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 265 is happening in Houston, Texas on Saturday, featuring an interim heavyweight title fight as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite four-fight parlay for UFC 265 that pays at odds of +609. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 265 predictions for the full 13-fight card.
Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane – Fight to end by TKO/KO (-150)
This fight is sure to be wild with two heavy strikers. They are fighting for a belt, so both are going to be pushing hard for a win. Derrick Lewis has unbelievable power, which makes up for his lack of grappling. Ciryl Gane tends to do a great job of controlling his fights with his technical ability and this certainly looks to be his toughest test so far in the UFC. The price on Gane is still too high, and while backing Lewis is tempting, it is also dangerous because he has been knocked out plenty of times. Lewis has seen 16 of his 21 fights end by TKO/KO and Gane has three knockouts of his own throughout his career. A submission win for either guy seems unlikely, so backing this fight to end by TKO/KO is the top play.
Bobby Green vs Rafael Fiziev – Fight to go the distance – Yes (-150)
Bobby Green comes into this fight 12-8-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to Thiago Moises by unanimous decision in October 2020. Green is averaging 5.17 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 3.32 strikes and has a striking defense of 63%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.56 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 41% and a takedown defense of 72%.
Rafael Fiziev comes into this fight 3-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Renato Moicano by TKO/KO in December 2020. He is averaging 4.67 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. He is absorbing 4.17 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. His grappling is decent, averaging 0.84 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Fiziev has a takedown accuracy of 50% and a takedown defense of 100%.
You have to consider the power of Fiziev here, but Green has seen his last 9 UFC fights go the distance. He has a very solid chin, so backing this fight to go the distance will be the play.
Miles Johns ML (-225) vs Anderson dos Santos
Miles Johns comes into this fight 3-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Kevin Natividad by TKO/KO in October 2020. He is averaging 3.33 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 2.42 strikes and has a striking defense of 68%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 1.21 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 30%, but his takedown defense is 87%.
Johns is the clear favorite and there is not much to suggest he cannot win this fight. Johns has better striking and is better at defending takedowns, so the play here will be Johns to win.
Melissa Gatto vs Victoria Leonardo – Fight to go the distance – No (-130)
Melissa Gatto comes into this fight with an MMA record of 6-0-2. She will be making her UFC debut. Gatto has been impressive on the ground, winning 4 of her 6 fights by submission. Of those 4 submission wins, all of them came in the first round, so a quick finish is possible.
Victoria Leonardo comes into this fight 1-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to Manon Fiorot by TKO/KO in January. Leonardo is averaging 3.40 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 37%. She is absorbing 4.15 strikes and has a striking defense of 47%.
Gatto is a new addition to the UFC, so we only know a little about her. Leonardo has seen both of her UFC fights end inside the distance. In her career, she has finished 5 of her 8 wins and has only lost by finish as well. With the power shown by Leonardo and the grappling ability from Gatto, a fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
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