Phil Agius
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The Ultimate Fighting Championship, or UFC, has become a hugely popular mixed martials arts series taking place throughout the year. It is also popular with sports bettors, and in this educational betting guide, we’ll be explaining where you can legally bet on UFC events, looking at the range of betting markets that are available and the smart way to play them, plus some strategies and hints to help you bet better on the UFC.
Where Is UFC betting legal?
Sports betting in the USA has come a long way since the Supreme Court overturned PASPA in 2018. That ruling enabled states to decide whether to legalize sports betting or not. Plenty of states have been taking advantage and several more are in the process of doing so.
As of August 2022, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington D.C. and West Virginia have all legalized online sports betting.
Numerous other states have legal sports betting, but only in person. Several states, most recently Massachusetts and Maryland, have just legalized sports betting and will have online sports betting available in the coming months. Most other states have at the very least introduced bills to get the process started, so it’s likely only a matter of a couple of years before the rest of the states have legalized betting on UFC and other MMA events.
As of August 2022, The following states all have a legal and regulated sports betting industry, where you can wager on UFC events:
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Louisiana
- Michigan
- Mississippi
- Montana
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New York
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- Tennessee
- Virginia
- Washington DC
- West Virginia
Best online UFC betting sites and mobile apps
In sports betting, it is always recommended to shop around for the best lines for any given sport. This is especially true for a sport such as UFC, in which a fight can end in a flash. Different sportsbooks have different odds and even different fight props for any given contest, so looking for the best number could end up being the difference between winning and losing in the long term.
Sometimes sportsbooks will have one fighter as the favorite and a different sportsbook might have them as a small underdog. These lines generally fluctuate closer to the start of the fight, so shopping around earlier in the week can pay off.
Check out Pickswise’s UFC Picks for every card
How to bet on UFC fights
When it comes to betting on the UFC, the majority of bettors will be looking to place a wager on the outcome of a fight. Whether that is by betting on a certain fighter to win, known as a money line bet, or by another popular market called method of victory, whereby you wager on a fighter to win and also the route by which they win. This can be by knockout/technical knockout, submission or a judges’ decision.
You can also bet on the round in which the fight will end, a fighter to win in a certain round, or on the over/under line for the total number of rounds that are contested. All of these markets are readily available at the top online sportsbooks and you simply have to click on the UFC tab to find all of the upcoming bouts. We go into more detail about the way to bet on the UFC and each individual bet type below so read on for more expert advice and information.
Ways to bet on UFC events
There are plenty of options for wagers when looking to bet on the UFC. This includes a straight up money line wager, a method of victory wager or even a bet on how long the fight might last. Some sportsbooks offer bets on when a fight will end in any given round. For example, there is a wager for a fight ending in the final minute of round one etc. These are normally harder to predict, but can pay out at big odds.
Money line – fight winner
The simplest form of betting on UFC predictions is placing a bet on the outright winner of a contest. Money line betting is often where people start out, particularly those new to UFC betting. Unlike other combat sports such as boxing, money line odds remain a value option as the explosive nature of UFC fights, where anything can happen, keeps the odds for many fights from being too short.
Method of victory
Method of victory is a market that will be offered in all of the big UFC bouts. It is often one of the most talked-about aspects of a matchup leading up to the fight and thus a popular betting choice. The options include taking a fighter to win by knockout/technical knockout or disqualification, submission, or by judges’ decision.
UFC fights are all about the matchups, there are so many disciplines combined into the UFC, with different fighters possessing different strengths. Some fighters will excel in their striking, others will be from a wrestling or jiu jitsu background and will excel on the ground. Knowing the fighter’s strengths and preferred fighting style is key in these markets, with power strikers more likely to win by KO/TKO, while grapplers could favor a submission attempt and two contrasting styles could see the fight going all the way to the scorecards.
Round betting
Round betting is a popular way to place a bet with greater odds than a moneyline wager. You are betting on a certain fighter to win in a specific round. With some fights scheduled for three rounds and championship bouts lasting five rounds, the odds will vary depending on the length of the fight. It’s a popular method of betting particularly when there is a strong favorite, with bettors preferring to take them to win in rounds 1 or 2, assuming they’ll get the job done early.
Some online sportsbooks will also offer round ranges, whereby you can select a fighter to win within a range of rounds, usually rounds 1-2 or 3-decision in shorter fights, and rounds 1-3 or 4-decision in championship fights.
Total rounds
Total rounds is an over/under market in which you can bet on how many rounds the fight will last. The line set on fights is usually universally +/- 1.5 rounds in three-round fights and +/- 2.5 rounds in five-round fights. This market allows you to wager on a fight without necessarily taking a side. Of course you still pick a side of the line depending on how you see the fight going. A slugfest might be over quickly but two fighters with good defense, a mixed style and no knockout power might go the distance or into the later rounds.
To go the distance
A market that was not always offered by bookmakers, but that is becoming much more popular, is on whether a fight will go the distance. It’s a simple yes or no pick on whether you think the fighters will hear the final bell or not. You’re not betting on a specific fighter but merely the distance of the fight itself. If you bet no, a victory by TKO/KO/DQ or submission by either fighter makes it a winning selection.
Future fights
UFC cards are announced in advance and online sportsbooks will price up fights, particularly the headline bouts in many cases over a month before they are due to take place. Betting on fights early can be a profitable strategy as the odds are likely to change closer to the fight with public opinion forming and lowering the price of a particular fighter.
Futures bets
While in the UFC there are no traditional Futures markets such as championships or leagues to be won, they schedule fights months in advance. As such, markets on future fights tend to go up very early and it can be profitable to bet early before the public money comes in and reduces the odds of a particular fighter. There’s also a danger you could bet too early if the public money comes for the other fighter, leading to the odds for your pick being better on fight night.
Five ways to bet better on UFC
Styles make fights
Irrespective of how experienced you may or may not be as a UFC bettor, one of the most important factors in betting smarter is understanding the fighters. Watching fights and doing your research adds to your personal database over time, but understanding each fighter’s strengths, style, and weaknesses is a key step toward successful betting.
As the name mixed martial arts suggests, it is a mixture of many different combat disciplines, including boxing, Muay Thai, wrestling, judo, and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, to name a few. As such, fighters will bring different combat backgrounds and styles to the fight, with each fighter having strengths and weaknesses across the disciplines.
For example, if you have a matchup between an unorthodox gifted striker with a tremendous takedown defense and an opponent who excels on the ground, you can expect the second fighter to respect his rival’s range and striking early on, and to attempt to take the fight down to the floor.
Be wary of heavy favorites
UFC is a volatile sport, and with the high-octane action in the octagon, anything can happen in the blink of an eye. As such, upsets are not uncommon in the UFC with favorites winning less than 70% of the time in title fights. With upsets on the cards and terribly low odds offered on some heavy favorites, it’s a difficult way to make a profit over time, as it can take multiple winning selections to recover the losses of one upset. The UFC has a great following, and public money isn’t always the most informed, so you can often see a favorite who is far shorter than they should be, offering no value.
If betting short-odds favorites, consider a parlay bet
Favorites do still win. Despite them not always being the best value option on the money line, they do still come good for bettors. With multiple fights on a card at each UFC event, a parlay bet could be a profitable option if you like a few favorites to get the job done. A parlay is one single bet on multiple matches, but all of your selections must win for the parlay to win. The positive aspect is the increased odds with your single stake rolling on to all of the selections with the odds of each leg multiplied. For example, three individual $100 bets on fighters at odds of -500, -400 and -350 would see you risking $300 to win $120, $125 and $128.57 – a total of $373.57 or $73.57 profit. A three-fight parlay bet on all three, however, would see you win $192.86 for a $100 stake, a profit of $92.86. If any one of the fighters loses, the return is zero, however.
Don’t ignore the undercards
Those new to the sport, in particular, will rush straight to the main event, with the big stars and names doing battle, attracting all of the attention. While betting on the main event is no bad thing, don’t overlook the fights beforehand. The undercard fights attract less attention by both fans and sportsbooks, so do your research, check out the replays of lesser-known fighters and you can unearth some hidden gems, often at greater odds.
Fight Week clues
One of the great strengths of the UFC during its meteoric rise in recent years has been the access the media gets. Fighters are made available to journalists and cameras, and the fight week can give away many clues about the contestants heading into the bout – read the reports or watch the press conferences during fight week. While fighters won’t be giving away their entire strategy pre-fight, they’ll talk about how their training camps have gone, what they’ve worked on and how they’ve felt, and you can use this to build your own picture of the fight.
The weigh-in can also be valuable. Weight cutting is common practice in the UFC but some weigh cuts are easier than others, and seeing the shape of a fighter at the weigh-in can be a great indicator of their likely performance the following day. If a fighter struggles to make weight it could indicate a tough preparation and they may not be in their best shape heading into the contest.
UFC betting strategies
Basic
One basic strategy to have when betting on the UFC is to have an established bankroll for each Fight Night. You want to know how many units you are willing to wager for each card and if you ever hit that limit, do not chase your losses by betting more.
It is also helpful to know the types of bets that are available as described above and which types of bets you are looking to wager on. Going straight money line is not always advisable because the prices can get expensive. Like other sports, it is also best to pick your spots. Even though there are generally only 10 to 13 fights on a UFC card, betting all of them could get you down quickly. Picking the fights that offer the best value is usually the best strategy.
Intermediate
For the UFC, most fighters generally have their own style of fighting which can dictate how their bouts might play out. For example, if a fighter has 10 wins by knockout/technical knockout and has never won by submission, betting him to win by submission is probably something to avoid. Or if another fighter has won pretty much all of his fights by decision, betting him to win by a finish is also not recommended. And while something wild could happen, it is best not to make a wager on a prop that involves something out of character for that fighter.
It also is recommended to look at stats when doing research. This can tell you how many strikes a fighter lands, their striking accuracy, their striking defense, how often they attempt a submission and how successful they are when attempting or defending takedowns. If a fighter is defending takedowns only 25% of the time, there is a good chance they are not comfortable with fighting on the ground and that could indicate their opponent could control the fight if they like to take it to the mat. Also take an interest in the weigh-ins at this level to see if there is any indication of a tough weight cut. There have been weigh-ins where a fighter has looked completely exhausted, which might indicate a low energy level. Watch out for fighters who miss the weight as well, as it could prove to be decisive once the fight starts.
Advanced
A more advanced strategy is following the other MMA organisations so new names at the top level are known to you. Nowadays, you can follow the Dana White Contender Series and get an inside look at all the upcoming fighters. Just because they do well in the Contender Series or Bellator does not necessarily mean they will immediately perform well in the UFC, though. New fighters tend to fight veterans in their UFC debut, which can also lead to good opportunities to fade the newbies.
There are generally fewer stats available on Contenders Series fighters, so watching their tape is the best way to see their style of fighting and finding their strengths and weaknesses.
Things to avoid when betting on UFC
One big thing to avoid in the UFC is hype. Take Conor McGregor for example. He had not been active between January 2020 and January 2021. The hype surrounding his return was enormous and his betting line reflected that. He fought Dustin Poirier after that break and while he started the fight strongly, he quickly faded in the second round and was easily defeated.
Another thing to avoid is to blindly back an undefeated fighter. Generally, fighters who are undefeated and are early in their UFC careers do not have the high-profile wins. One fighter who is 10-0 could be much different than another who is 10-0. Look at who they have beaten and whether their early opponents were any good or if they were just a cakewalk for the undefeated fighters. The same goes with earlier opponents a fighter might have lost to. If a fighter is losing only to top-quality rivals, then they might actually have an advantage when fighting someone new to the promotion because of that experience.
Again, it is best to avoid betting on every fight. Some fights might be evenly matched and others might look like there is a clear advantage, but upsets happen all the time in UFC, so you generally just want to pick your spots and avoid the coin flip fights.
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