Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The pinnacle of the NBA playoffs: Game 7. Philadelphia (+7) heads back to Boston to close out the Eastern Conference semifinals on Sunday with the Miami Heat awaiting the winning team in the Eastern Conference Finals. This series has been the most perplexing of the second round. James Harden has put up two all-time performances in Game 1 and Game 4, labeling Jayson Tatum as inconsistent would be polite, and Joe Mazzulla is being outcoached by none other than Doc Rivers of all people, and yet … we have a Game 7.
Joel Embiid had his Finals hopes stripped away from him in a Game 7 against Toronto in 2019 and this could be Harden’s last real chance at an NBA title. While the Celtics are heavily favored at home, it’s very difficult to feel confident given what we’ve seen. The total is set at 201 points, which has been hit in 5 of the 6 games, with Game 6 being the only under.
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James Harden, PHI, Over 20.5 points (-106)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This line is just too tempting for what James Harden is to this 76ers team. Yes, he has hit it only 2 of the 6 games, but he still technically averaging 24 points per game in the series. When you factor in standard deviation, I have him projected at 23 points, which is enough to pull the trigger on this play. I do not expect Harden to drop 40-plus again, but he will need to contribute more than the 14.5 ppg he had in the other 4 games this series. While he is the main facilitator now that Joel Embiid is “healthy”, he still put up 16 FGA in Game 6 with Rob Williams inserted into the starting lineup.
Unfortunately, Harden shot an abysmal 25% from the field and 0/6 from deep. I do not see that being replicated in Game 7. In the 4 Game 7s he has played in his career, he has averaged 39% from the field, which is closer to my expectation on Sunday. Numbers aside, this is Harden’s legacy on the line. A big performance in Game 7 to propel Philadelphia to the Eastern Conference Finals and become one step closer to the NBA Finals could change his standing in basketball history. I’m backing Harden with the line this reachable. 1U
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Marcus Smart, BOS, Over 8.5 assists + rebounds (-135)
Line available on DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbooks at the time of publishing.
Marcus Smart is a beacon of consistency in the playoffs and the backbone of this Celtics team. He’s had no less than 7 RA in 11 of his 12 postseason games this year and has hit this line in 5 of them. The reason I like this play so much despite the excessive juice is that he should play close to 40 minutes unless the game gets out of hand. In a must-win Game 6, Smart played nearly 42 minutes.
Smart is averaging 6.7 rebound chances and 8.8 potential assists this series (15.5 potential total) based on 35.8 minutes per game. If he plays nearly 40 minutes, that projection jumped to 16.8 potential. He has hit this in 5 of 6 Game 7s in his career. The only miss was an 8 total and he’s averaged nearly 40 minutes per game in his last 3 Game 7s. In my opinion, this still holds positive value even with the 35 cents worth of juice. 1U
Let’s end this series with a $5 and a Dream SGP! (+16711)
- James Harden 30+ points (+800)
- Marcus Smart 8+ assists (+340)
- Al Horford 10+ rebounds (+350)
$5 pays $835
You can also check out our 76ers vs Celtics Same Game Parlay
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