Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Only 3 games tonight for NBA: Nuggets vs Jazz (+6), Trailblazers vs Clippers (-16.5), and T-Wolves vs Spurs (+14). The Clippers and T-Wolves have incentives to win as it impacts their standings in the Western Conference playoff picture. The Nuggets are locked into the 1 seed into the West regardless of outcome. It is always difficult betting a small slate and makes it even harder when games are more than likely to be complete blowouts combined with no-name players getting a lion share of minutes on tanking teams. I will tread lightly today.
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Mike Conley (MIN) over 5.5 assists (+100)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Timberwolves need a win tonight to prevent falling into the 10th seed in the West. Conley has hit this line in 2 of the L3 and playing 31+min in 4 straight games. The Spurs are throwing warm bodies on the floor at this point of the season and there’s a reason this spread is at -14 with the highest game total of the day (233). With San Antonio in tank mode (3-7 of the L10) they’ve allowed the 23rd most assists per game. Conley is averaging 5.6 APG per 36min as a member of the T-Wolves. This is a 0.5U play.
Ivica Zubac (LAC) under 12.5 points (-128)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Zubac is only averaging 26mpg post-ASB and I think could be in line for even fewer tonight when this game gets blown wide open. He’s hit this number in 3 straight games, but all were against completive games that Lue needed his starters to contribute. This line is exceptionally high considering he’s only hit it in 33% of games this season and 1/2 vs POR on the year. 0.5U play for me.
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Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) over 21.5 points (-105)
Line available on BetMGM Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Towns is Questionable tonight with a right calf strain, but if he plays, I expect him to go 30+min. He’s hit this line in 4/6 games since returning from injury and had a healthy 15+ FGA in 5/6 games. As mentioned above, the T-Wolves are playing to win tonight, and the Spurs are a mess defensively. They’re also allowing the 2nd worst FG% in the paint over the L10. 0.5U
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