Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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We have 3 games tonight in the NBA playoff schedule. Atlanta heads back to Boston (-13) to fend off being eliminated in 5 games, but it will be hard for the Hawks without Dejounte Murray, who is suspended for antagonizing a referee at the close of Game 4. Minnesota is in a similar predicament, heading back to Denver (-9.5) in Game 5 with hopes of extending the series. Lastly, the Clippers head back to Phoenix (-12.5) without Kawhi Leonard in a bizarre series of absences this post-season. All 3 home favorites have the potential to move on to the next round in and close things out in Game 5, and I expect them all to do so. The only upset I could possibly see is Minnesota, but that is still very unlikely.
With the favorites all likely to oblige, a better way to add some excitement to today’s NBA slate is by focusing on the player prop market. And that’s where I come in. Check out my 2 best NBA player prop bets for tonight’s slate below, and you can also check out our team of expert handicappers’ NBA picks for today’s matchups.
Nikola Jokic (DEN) over 8.5 assists (-115)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Jokic is averaging 13.5 potential assists on the series for 8.3 per game, but in the regular season, his assist averages jump to 11.1 per game at home. He hit this line an absurd 30/35 games at home during the regular season and for good reason: the Nuggets lead the league in field-goal percentage at home this season (51.4%) and are 2nd in three-point percentage (39%). I expect them to close out the series tonight and although Jokic should be in line for a triple-double, sadly the value on that play doesn’t exist anymore. 1.5U
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Saddiq Bey (ATL) over 10.5 points (-113)
Line available on FanDuel sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Bey should see a minutes boost tonight with Murray out of the lineup and will be called upon to be a 2nd or 3rd scoring option if possible. He hit this in both games during the second half of the season that Murray missed (excluding the last game of the season that didn’t matter). Bey averages 11.6 ppg as a member of the Hawks and that number jumps to 14.9 ppg when he plays 25min+. 1U
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LA Clippers vs Phoenix Suns Same Game Parlay (+149)
Line available on FanDuel sportsbook at the time of publishing.
- Kevin Durant 25+ Points
- Devin Booker 25+ Points
- Kevin Durant 4+ Asts
- Suns ML
Durant has hit the 25 points and 4 assists line in all 4 games this series, playing over 40 minutes in each game. The reward for this type of workload is closing the game out in 5 and getting additional rest before the conference semifinals. Durant is averaging 12 potential assists per game at home this season, good for 8 assists. I’m cutting that in half and expect Phoenix to come out on fire tonight. Booker has also hit this 25-point mark in every game this series and 16/19 home playoff games in his career. It may seem a bit foolish to load an SGP with just two guys, but when you look at the usage rate/minutes of this Phoenix team, Booker & Durant stand out above the rest of the team. 1U
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