Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The NBA playoffs start today! We have 4 games ahead of us, starting at 1:00 pm ET, and our first matchup is Nets (+8.5) vs 76ers. The season series is somewhat irrelevant given the monstrous trade for Brooklyn changing the entire team, but Philadelphia won 101-98 in Mikal Bridges’ first start as Net. Next on the docket is Hawks (+9) vs Celtics and Boston swept the regular-season series 3-0. In the 6:00 pm ET window is Knicks (+5) vs Cavaliers, where the Knicks owned the regular-season series lead 3-1. Lastly, we have Warriors (+1) vs Kings in what is likely the best matchup of the day, where the Warriors own the regular-season series 3-1.
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James Harden (PHI) over 19.5 points (-124)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Here comes Playoff James. Harden has hit this line in 58% of games this regular season, including 29 against Brooklyn in February. This line is just below his season average of 21 points per game and when coming off 3+ days’ rest Harden is averaging 24.6 points per game this season. Previous iterations of Harden were slow and out of shape, but he has looked his best since his last season in Houston this year. I like Harden to be a little more aggressive offensively now that the games matter and to get to the free-throw line for at least 6 attempts. When he gets 6+ FTAs, he has hit this line in 26 of 35 games (74%). 1U
Malcolm Brogdon (BOS) over 6.5 rebounds + assists (-115)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Malcolm Brogdon has hit this line in 70% of his games this season and will be an integral part of the Celtics’ playoff run. He had 9 rebounds and assists in his sole game against the Hawks this season in only 25 minutes and has landed on this line in 10/14 games since the beginning of March. I have Brogdon pegged for around 29 minutes today and when he hits that mark, he averages 9 RA for the season and has cleared this line in 16/18 games. The Hawks allow the 23rd-most APG since the All-Star break and this game total is set at 231, indicating a higher -scoring affair. 2U
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Julius Randle (NYK) over 10.5 rebounds + assists (-138)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Julius Randle is nursing an injured ankle but is now expected to play in Game 1 of this series. The Kentucky product has hit this line in all 3 games against the Cavaliers this season and 81% of games on the season (yes, that stat is correct). Cleveland’s large frontcourt hasn’t done much to deter Randle on the glass as he averaged 17 rebound chances per game against the Cavs and 10 rebounds per game. For the assist mark, he’s averaged 5 per game against Cleveland and his injury may have him looking to drive and kick early in the game to prevent aggravating that ankle. 1U
Check out today’s first basket best bets!
Jonathan Kuminga (GSW) over 1.5 assists (+120)
Line available on BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
In a game filled with Curry, Thompson, Sabonis and Fox, this line is a hidden gem. Jonathan Kuminga is a member of this Warriors’ rotation and even with Andrew Wiggins coming back, I still expect him to be in the 20-25 minute range. He’s hit this line 9 times since the beginning of March and logged at least 1 assist in 15 straight games. The Kings are allowing the 2nd–most APG since the All-Star break and this game’s total is the highest of the day. Kuminga is a better passer than most give him credit for and being surrounding by shooters like Curry, Thompson, and Poole makes it that much easier for him to hit this mark. 0.5U
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