Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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We’re finally here… NBA Playoffs 2023. Tonight’s play-in games consist of Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat (-5.5) and Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Lakers (-7.5). For those who are not familiar with the play-in tournament, the winner of the #7 vs #8 game will become the 7th seed. The loser of the #7 vs #8 game will play the winner of the #9 vs #10 game and become the 8th seed.
I think both the Lakers and Heat will win with ease tonight. Minnesota will be without starters Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels due to suspension. The Heat have been middling all season, but Jimmy Butler and Erik Spoelstra are too battle-tested to be knocked off this early. Let’s dive into tonight’s player props!
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Saddiq Bey (ATL) over 13.5 points and rebounds (-109)
Line available on Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Saddiq Bey has worked himself nicely into Quin Snyder’s rotation since being traded from Detroit in mid-February. The 6’7″ SF is the type of player Atlanta will need on the floor tonight against the smaller Miami Heat. Since Snyder’s debut, Bey is averaging 17 points and rebounds per game in only 26 minutes per game. Against Miami in early March, Bey played 35 minutes and 32 minutes, even with the Hawks at full strength, signaling to me that he should have a large role in this matchup. In those games he had 25 and 23 points and rebounds. I love this line as low as it is and I’m on it for 1.5U.
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Rui Hachimura (LAL) over 11.5 points and rebounds (-120)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Rui Hachimura is an interesting role player on this Lakers team. He’s up to almost 23 minutes per game in April (5 games) and averaging 12.8 points and 6.2 rebounds in that span. His 9 points and 4 rebounds per game post the All Star-Break clear this line easily and I see the T-Wolves playing slightly smaller tonight with no Gobert or McDaniels, implying more minutes for Taurean Prince and Naz Reid. He has hit this line in 21 of 33 games as a Laker and 13 of 24 as a Laker reserve, but the data set is all over the place for minutes and results. Let’s narrow that down: as a Lakers reserve when he plays 20+ minutes, he has hit this line in 9 of 13 games, averaging 16 points and rebounds. This is where I have him slotted tonight. 0.5U
Ypou can also check out our NBA first-basket best bets for today’s play-in games
Anthony Edwards (MIN) under 38.5 points, rebounds and assists (-105)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This one is not for the faint of heart. Yes, I’m fading Anthony Edwards in the playoffs despite him being one of my favorite young players in the NBA. This line is absurdly high when reviewing his season averages. Let’s take a look. He is averaging 35 points, rebounds and assists per game on the season on 36 minutes per game. Since the All Star-Break Edwards is at 34.8 points, rebounds and assists on 36 minutes per game. His highest total of the season against LA was 35 PRA in 38 minutes of play. I understand the T-Wolves will be centered around Edwards tonight, but the Lakers have handled him well defensively in the second half of the season. In the last two matchups with the Lakers, Edwards shot 34% from the field and averaged 7 rebounds and assists over both games. If this was at 36.5 I’d stay away, but at 38.5 I struggle to see how Edwards will hit this number. Oh, did I mention that the Lakers hold the 4th-best defensive rating in the NBA since the All Star-Break? 1U
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