Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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After a quiet 2-game slate on Thursday (to give MLB some shine) the NBA comes back with a vengeance on Friday night. Four teams are locked into the playoffs in the East and 3 in the West, while 1 game separates the 11th seed in the West from the 8th seed and the Lakers, Thunder and Mavericks are in a dogfight for those final play-in spots. In the East, things are a little more solidified. Seeds 1-7 seem firm with Atlanta and Toronto jockeying for the 8th and 9th seeds and the Bulls are 2 games ahead of the Wizards. Follow all that? Great! Let’s take a look at our player props for the evening.
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DeMar DeRozan (CHI) over 22.5 points (-109)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
We are bargain shopping to start the day and DeMar DeRozan at 22.5 is a steal of a line. This has hit in 57% of games this season and 1/2 games against Charlotte when he sees over 30 minutes. DeRozan is averaging 24.9 ppg on the season and 25.6 ppg on the road. Charlotte is trotting out a real C-squad in full tank mode and the Bulls still need to win to keep distance with Washington for the final play-in spot. This could be a blowout, but not before DeRozan gets to 25+. 1U
Gary Harris (ORL) over 7.5 points (-113)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Orlando is likely out of play-in game contention with 6 games to go, but the Magic are still playing really well down the stretch. Gary Harris has hit this line in 4 of his last 5 games and 60% of the time when he gets 5 FGA or more. The Wizards are without Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma, so there is a good chance we will see Orlando pulling out a victory, and Harris averages 10 ppg in wins against 7 in losses. Harris has had success against Washington this season, hitting this line in 2/3 games, and he tied a season-high 22 against the Wizards 10 days ago. 1U
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Austin Reaves (LAL) under 14.5 points (-105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
With LeBron James back in the lineup, Darvin Ham has been tasked with testing out rotations that will be the most successful in the playoffs. As a result, Reaves’ role is in flux. With LeBron back, Reaves played 37 minutes followed by 29, a huge disparity. He has hit this line in 1/2 with LeBron back and in order hit it, he had to go 7/8 from the field and 4/4 from the FT line in his 29 minutes. That will be insanely hard to duplicate. Reaves is averaging 13.6 ppg as a starter and has hit this line in only 37% of his starts. 1U
Trae Young (ATL) over 25.5 points (-109)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Another weak line I want to attack on one of the highest-volume scorers in the league. Trae Young is averaging 26.5 ppg on the season and 27.6ppg at home. In his one game against the Nets this season, he went off for 34 points on only 1/4 from 3-point range. Young is averaging 18 FGA per game since the All-Star Break and when he hits that mark, he has eclipsed this line in 33/44 (75%) games on the season. The Hawks are tied with Toronto at 38 wins and seeding will make the difference when it comes to the play-in game (8th seed needs to win 1 game, 9th seed needs to win 2). 1U
John Collins over 5.5 rebounds (-118)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
We get this line right at John Collins’ season average of 6.6 rpg and a questionable Deandre Hunter could see Collins with a slight minutes increase. He has hit this line in 2 straight and 4 of this L6. The Nets rank 24th in the league in opponent rpg over the last 10 and he’s hit this in 1/2 against the Nets this season. Collins is 3rd on the team in March for rebound chances at 9.3 and the undersized Nets are a perfect team to get that number. The game total of 241 is the second highest of the night and implies a back-and-forth game between these Eastern conference playoff contennders. Let’s ride with the over at 0.5U.
Luguentz Dort (IND) over 2.5 assists (+140)
Line available at Fanduel sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Bit of an oddball play, but I’m getting nearly 1.5x my money without SGA in the lineup and a Pacer team allowing the 9th most Opp APG over the L10. Dort normally averages 4 potential assists per game, but with SGA out, we can see that number rise to 5. This is worth the 0.5U given the odds and the weak opponent.
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