Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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We have a 6-pack of NBA games for tonight and at first glance, it appears a bit ugly. Three games have spreads of 8.5 or higher and blowouts appear to be on the horizon following an exciting weekend of March Madness. Kyrie and Luka are still questionable at the time of writing this, as well as Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Anthony Edwards. We will do our best to limit our exposure and only focus on the plays we have an edge on. I am picking 62% over my last 21 plays given (including the NCAA Tournament). Let’s roll!
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Kevin Porter Jr. (HOU) under 31.5 PRA (-105)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This line is +2 above his season average of 30 PRA per game. He is 1-1 against the Warriors this season against a line of 31.5. Since the all-star break, KPJ has yet to return to form in the scoring column and is only averaging 16.7 ppg vs 19.2 pre-ASB. His March averages are at 29.1 PRA and for me, this number is just too high. Golden State is currently slotted into the 7th seed and wants to get out of the play-in spot. Steph and Klay will return tonight and I expect Kerr to have them focused with 10 games remaining.
All signs are pointing toward KPJ having himself a night and the line reflects a higher-than-normal output, but I’m fading the Rockets point guard who is anything but consistent. This game screams blowout to me and should limit KPJ’s minutes. 1U
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Myles Turner (IND) over 8.5 rebounds (+106)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Turner’s numbers post-ASB look bleak and it’s primarily due to his ability to stay out of foul trouble. He’s had 5+ fouls in 5 of the last 9 games and it’s hurt his aggressiveness on the boards, but he’s still managing 12.8 rebound chances per game in under 30 minutes of play. The Hornets will be without Mark Williams tonight and Charlotte ranks 25th in opponent rebounding rate post-ASB (46%). Surprisingly, the Hornets/Pacers game has the lowest spread of the night at -2 so it may be a really competitive game between two lottery teams. Turner hit this in both games against the Hornets this season and played over 30 minutes in both contests while staying under 4 fouls. At plus-money odds, I love this value. 0.5U
Get all of our NBA picks for tonight’s 6-game slate
RJ Barrett (NYK) over 4.5 rebounds (-134)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’ve done a good job lately of staying away from the juicy bets, but this one is worth the squeeze. Barrett is averaging 9 rebound chances per game post-ASB and cleared this line in 5 of his last 7 games. The Timberwolves rank 28th in opponent defensive rebounds per game and opponent rebounding rate post-ASB. Barrett is playing 34 minutes per game in the month of March and averaging 5 rebounds. He hit this line against Minnesota earlier in the season and I’ll lay the 34 cents considering I project him at 6 boards. 1U
Be sure to check out our full Minnesota Timberwolves vs New York Knicks predictions
Andrew Nembhard (IND) under 5.5 assists (-115)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Nembhard is only averaging 7 potential assists per game over his last 10 games so to hit 6 leaves very little room for error in my opinion. Charlotte is also allowing the 3rd-fewest assists per game since the all-star break. The rookie has only hit this line in 3 of the last 15 games and TJ McConnell’s presence will further limit his abilities to facilitate. The line is just too high considering he’s only averaging 3.4 assists and 27 minutes per game for the month of March. 1.5U
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