Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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NBA Saturday is upon us. We have a full 10 game slate tipping off at 4pm ET and a few playoff caliber matchups to sort through.
The first game of the day is the New York Knicks vs Los Angeles Clippers (-5); the Knicks have dropped 2 in succession following an impressive 9 game win streak. The Clippers are winners of 2 in a row after dropping 6 straight and this is an interesting matchup on paper considering style of play and pace. The Bucks (+1) are on the west coast playing against Golden State in what I anticipated to be the NBA Finals back in October, but injuries derailed the Warriors in the middle of the season. They are finally getting healthy and will make their late playoff push to improve seeding. To cap off the night, Sacramento (+3) is taking on the Suns minus Kevin Durant after getting hurt in warmups earlier this week.
Here are my best prop bets.
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Kawhi Leonard (LAC) Over 26.5 points (-110)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Leonard is averaging 29PPG post all-star break and a healthy 38MPG in that stretch. He is shooting an absurd 60% from the 3P in that same span and 56% from the field. Leonard is locked in and getting into playoff form. Against the Knicks back in February, he had his third highest point total of the season (35). RJ Barrett will be the primary defender on Leonard all day with Hart having his hands full on Paul George and I like Leonard to win that matchup. If this line was 28.5, I’d likely stay away — but at 26.5 in a game where the Clippers are favored by 5 points, I can see him having himself quite a day. 1.5U.
Alperen Sengun (HOU) Over 22.5 points + rebounds (-105)
Line available at PointsBet Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Sengun has hit this line in 3 of the last 4 games, with the miss being 22 exactly. The Rockets sophomore center is averaging 14.4 rebound chances per game post all-star break and leads the team with 9 rebounds per contest. In the scoring column, Sengun has been hyper efficient, shooting 50% or better in 5 straight games and Kevin Porter Jr’s return has attributed to that. Against the Bulls in December, Sengun put together one of his best performances of the season with 25 points and 11 rebounds. I love this flexibility of this line at 22.5, but if you need more juice then his double-double is +165 and has logged in in 3 of the last 4. 1U.
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Josh Okogie (PHO) Over 1.5 3PM (+116)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
It seems odds to play Okogie out of all the big names in the matchup, but stay with me…. The Kings are allowing the 2nd-most 3PM (15.4) and 5th-most 3PA (38.6) per game over the last 10.Okogie is averaging nearly 6 3PA per game as a starter and hit this line in 5 of the last 10. Durant being out should see Okogie’s shot attempts increase again and with the Kings looking to run Booker off the line, Okogie will see more open looks. 0.5U.
$5 and a Dream Parlay (+11312)
- Jaylen Brown 30+ Points (+190)
- Kawhi Leonard 30+ Points (+170)
- Alperen Sengun Double Double (+165)
- Josh Okogie 3+ 3PM (+450)
$5 pays $565
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