Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The Celtics avoided the sweep in Game 4 and head back to Boston, where they are 4-5 straight up this postseason. As the series has unfolded, not much has changed to the narrative: Boston is more talented, Miami is player better, and Miami’s coaching advantage is the size of the Grand Canyon.
The Celtics have revived Grant Williams and brought him back to being a rotation player, while injecting Derrick White back into the starting lineup. Miami is getting the best basketball of Caleb Martin’s career with blips of Duncan Robinson, Kyle Lowry, and Kevin Love. I’m avoiding a side in this game, but whoever wins, I’m expecting it to be a near double-digit victory.
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Jaylen Brown over 22.5 points (-118)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I love weak lines. I love overreactions. This is a combination of the two. Brown has played poorly in three straight games, two of which were on the road. Brown is averaging 22.7ppg this postseason, but that number jumps to 24.1ppg at home. He’s hit this line in 6/9 (66%) at the TD Garden and will be counted on heavily to keep this series alive in Game 5. The minutes will be there for Brown as well and it’s to safe 37min barring a blowout on the Boston side; when he’s played 37+min this postseason, he hits this line in 7/11 (63%). Tatum will garner the majority of attention defensively and we’re seeing Brown attempting to make the most of it: 2 of his 6 largest volume games this postseason (FGA) are in this series (despite it only being 4 games). For me, this mumber is too low for an All-NBA player that you can pencil in for 17+ FGA and a propensity to show up at home. Boston will need him. 1.5U
Jimmy Butler over 2.5 steals + blocks (-105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Butler is 2nd overall in the entire postseason in steals per game (2.1) and nearly a full block per game (0.8). “Himmy” is far more aggressive defensively on the road, hitting this line in 5/7 and both games in Boston. I like him to be active in jumping the passing lanes and playing swarming defense as this Celtics team has been known to be turnover happy. They are averaging 13.8 turnovers per game this Conference Finals and that number jumps to 15 at home. 1U
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Grant Williams over 0.5 steals + blocks (-145)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Williams has solidified himself as a part pf this rotation again, putting up 25+min in 3 straight games. The Heat are allowing 5.8 blocks against this Conference Finals and Williams defense is what is keeping him on the floor. The Celtics are known for switching at every screen so if Grant is given a Gabe Vincent or Kyle Lowry late in the shot clock, he should be able to knab an easy block. Williams has hit this line in both home playoff game that he saw 25+min. Despite the juice on this play, I think it’s an easy cash given he only needs to log one block OR steal in a game where he will see key defensive assignments. 1U
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