Prop Holliday’s expert 2023 NBA Draft best bets, picks and predictions: Lively is climbing draft boards

The 77th annual NBA draft takes place on June 22 in the Barclays Center on Thursday night. A once-in-a-generation talent, Victor Wembanyama, is locked in to go first. As someone who considers sports betting a part-time profession, I despise the word “lock”, but Wembanyama at #1 is as close as that term gets. There is a steep drop in confidence outside of the top 3, with Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller jockeying for 2nd and 3rd spots. The rest of the draft has a lot of uncertainty. Teams will be forced to make decisions in the lottery based on upside potential, high floors and “specialists”. I’ve come up with my NBA Draft best bets for Thursday night.

For me, I’ve outlined a few bets to make as of Monday, June 19, that I feel confident about given what I’ve read and certain amount of personal scouting. I try to avoid anything heavily juiced as drafts have a ripple effect that can skew all of the proceeding picks. Oh, and trades! Which we are expecting to see a lot of this year due to the new CBA in place and big names, such as Zion Williamson and Damian Lillard, being floated around draft night.

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2023 NBA Draft Best Bets

Top 3 Exact Order: 1. Victor Wembanyama, 2. Scoot Henderson, 3. Brandon Miller (-135)

Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

I will spare you a few lines of reading on Victor Wembanyama; he’s going #1. Scoot Henderson, to me, is the clearcut number 2 prospect in this draft. After seeing him attempt to steal the spotlight from Wembanyama during their October 5th showdown, I immediately became locked in. Henderson’s floor vision and decision-making are higher than the average 19-year-old’s. His athleticism jumps off the screen, and defensively, he should be a stalwart in this league for years to come.

Early expectations were for Charlotte to draft Brandon Miller alongside LaMelo Ball due to fit, but most know that if you’re drafting in the top 3, you need to take the best player available — Henderson is that. This was previously plus-money odds a few weeks ago, and the market has finally come around to Scoot being a nice consolation prize for the Hornets. 1U

Taylor Hendricks (UCF) under pick 8.5 (-115)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Hendricks is 6’9″ with a 7-foot wingspan who can shoot from three-point range (floor spacing) and can protect the rim while also getting out in the open floor. This skillset is a premium in the NBA today, as we’ve seen throughout the playoffs. He struggles to create his own shot but is valuable to any team in the top 10. Teams like Detroit, Indiana, and Washington all stand up as options for Hendricks before the 9th pick. The Central Florida prospect reminds me a little of Wendell Carter Jr. His shot blocking really jumps off the screen and when you add the catch-and-shoot ability, I see a stretch 4 that teams will salivate over. 0.75U

Dereck Lively (Duke) Top-10 pick (+240)

Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Lively is slowing moving up draft boards these past two weeks after showing a wider range of offensive skills than he was asked to do at Duke. The freshman was a top high school prospect in the nation heading into 2022 and you rarely see that level of talent fall late in the first round unless there are injury/off-court concerns. Lively has neither, he was simply underutilized. Teams will likely need to trade up into the top 10, but someone like Golden State, who whiffed on James Wiseman, could make another run on an athletic big man for their squad.

Lively will make an impact on the defensive end and pick/pop around the FT line. Toronto and Atlanta are two other teams I could see having interest assuming Atlanta walks away from that Capela contract at $18 million per year. His shooting in workouts and mechanics are enough to entice a team to trade up. 0.5U

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