A potential Western Conference Finals preview awaits us on Friday night when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Denver Nuggets. The defending champs got the win in the first meeting at the beginning of February, but can Nikola Jokic and company respond? Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 pm ET on ESPN as part of their doubleheader, and I’ve pieced together a Nuggets vs Thunder parlay at +568 odds to make the stakes even higher. I just cashed a Thunder vs Pistons SGP at +324 odds the other day, so let’s keep that momentum going! We’ve got you covered with our expert NBA picks for all 5 Friday games, but for now, let’s break down tonight’s SGP.
Nuggets +8.5 (-114)
Christian Braun over 1.5 made threes (+140)
Cason Wallace over 2.5 assists (-136)
Nuggets vs Thunder parlay odds: +540
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Nuggets vs Thunder SGP pick: Denver Nuggets +8.5 over OKC Thunder (-114)
Optimism is back in the Nuggets camp following their impressive win over the Boston Celtics the other day. They held the Cs to just 84 points despite losing Jamal Murray early in that game to an illness. Another big win vs OKC would do wonders for the confidence of this team; it’s been a while since we’ve seen a signature performance from the Joker. This is just the ideal opportunity for him to deliver one.
The defending champs are still without Jalen Williams, and even though they are considered to be one of the deeper teams in the league, this game could be a struggle as it’s their 3rd in 4 nights. From a bettors’ perspective, we’re seeing a trend in head-to-head meetings favoring the road team here. Over the last 9 games, they’ve covered in 6 of those. The first meeting of the season saw OKC triumph at Ball Arena by 10 points; let’s not underestimate the revenge factor here as well. These two teams are evenly matched, so I have a hard time backing the Thunder to go up 2-0 in the regular season series. I’ll take the Nuggets to cover as part of my SGP bet, but for increased odds, it’s also worth considering backing them to win outright.
Read our full Nuggets vs Thunder prediction for tonight on ESPN
Nuggets vs Thunder SGP pick: Christian Braun over 1.5 made threes (+140)
We all know what the likes of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon etc. bring to the table for the Nuggets. However, I am of the belief that Christian Braun could play a vital role for them down the road in the postseason, so it should be a priority for Jokic and co. to get their shooting guard going after the All-Star break. Braun briefly returned before the break following a prolonged absence due to injuries, and over the past 4 games, he’s shown that Denver can count on him in big moments. He’s cleared this line in 2 of 3 games, and with Murray’s potentially missing this game due to illness, there is a chance Braun’s role increases substantially on offense.
We’ve seen Braun go off in recent meetings against the Thunder. The last 10 such games have seen him average 14.6 points, which isn’t too bad for the 4th or even 5th scoring option at times. He’s knocked down at least 2 threes in 5 straight meetings and in 8 of the last 10 while shooting 35% from downtown. OKC ranks 26th in three-point percentage allowed this season, and in their last 3 games, that number has risen to 38.5%. That grades worse than the 30th-placed Brooklyn Nets, who are surrendering 37.4% from distance.
Lock in our expert’s NBA best bets for each of tonight’s 5 matchups
Nuggets vs Thunder SGP pick: Cason Wallace over 2.5 assists (-136)
Cason Wallace has made big strides in his development over the past several weeks or even months of this season. He’s getting assists for fun at this point, as he has dished out at least 3 assists in all 10 of his recent outings, making this one of the more consistent bets in the entire NBA in the month of February. Even with SGA returning, the Thunder will need Wallace and his playmaking throughout this contest.
The last time these 2 teams met, he went off for 27 points, including 7 threes made, though I’m hoping he doesn’t fall in love with the three-ball early in this game. Wallace played a vital role with 5 assists last season when OKC eliminated the Nuggets in Game 7 of their Western Conference Playoffs series, and a performance like that would do wonders for the Thunder here. Denver ranks 14th for assists allowed this season at 26.7 per game, but over their last 3 games, they’ve slipped a bit with opponents averaging 28.3 per game. This game will be a good measuring stick for Wallace, so let’s see if he can continue his impressive run against one of the elite teams in the West.
Now check out our Cavaliers vs Pistons predictions for tonight’s HUGE game in the East
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