Ricky Dimon
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And then there were 8…. pretty soon there will be just 4. In fact, half of the Final Four will be set by the end of Saturday night, as the Elite Eight tips off today with Florida Atlantic facing Kansas State and UConn going up against Gonzaga. On Sunday, Creighton battles San Diego State and last but not least it’s Miami vs Texas. For those counting, the seeds that remain are 9, 3, 4, 3, 6, 5, 5 and 2.
Here is my 3-team mega parlay for Saturday and Sunday, and also make sure to check out our March Madness basketball picks for all of the games.
Florida Atlantic ML (+112)
UConn vs Gonzaga Over 153.5 (-110)
Miami ML (+150)
NCAAB parlay odds: +912
For this parlay we are going with 2 underdogs on the money line and an over play. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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Florida Atlantic ML over Kansas State (+112)
At #9, Florida Atlantic is the lowest-seeded team remaining in a tournament full of surprises, Cinderellas and upsets. Can the Owls keep it going? I think the answer to that is yes. As a 34-3 record suggests, this team is no joke. Sure the regular-season schedule was not taxing and even the NCAA Tournament draw has been friendly (#16 Fairleigh Dickinson in the second round, for example), but the Owls have impressed from start to finish – especially during a 62-55 Sweet 16 victory over Tennessee. Now they face a Kansas State squad that is coming off an energy-sapping overtime defeat of Michigan State. The Wildcats are also for real, but I think they are ripe for an upset. KSU guard Markquis Nowell set an NCAA Tournament record with 19 assists in that game; now I think FAU gets a proverbial assist from Michigan State.
UConn vs Gonzaga Over 153.5 (-110)
The over is 10-3 in Gonzaga’s last 13 overall. Thursday’s thriller against UCLA went over the total and I expect the Zags’ Elite Eight showdown with UConn to do the same. Both the Bulldogs and the Huskies are graded as top 3 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency by KenPom, BartTorvik and Haslametrics. Gonzaga has scored at least 70 points in each of its last 7 games against opponents that rank in the top 20 of KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric (that applies to UConn). As for the Huskies, they rank 235th in effective field-goal percentage defense. At the other end of the court, UConn has averaged 83.6 points per game against Division 1 defenses that rank outside the top 150 in effective field-goal percentage defense. The Huskies have scored at least 87 points in 2 of their 3 NCAA Tournament games so far.
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Miami ML over Texas (+150)
Based on both overall body of work in 2022-23 and also current form, the last game of the weekend is the best one. Miami (25-7, 15-5 ACC) is 12-2 SU in its last 14 overall and just walloped #1 seed Houston by 14 points. Texas (29-8, 12-6 Big 12) won the Big 12 Tournament and crushed Xavier in the Sweet 16. For me, this is an even matchup on paper, so there is great value in Miami as a sizable underdog. Isaiah Wong, Nijel Pack and Jordan Miller have been outstanding for the Hurricanes all season long and have been especially effective in the last 2 games. Head coach Jim Larranaga has basically become Mr. March 2.0 behind the 1.0 that is Tom Izzo, and it would not surprise me in the least if Coach L puts an exclamation point on his career with not only another Final Four berth, but even a national championship.
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