NBA Wednesday parlay at mega (+763 odds) today 4/19: Don't count out Memphis

Memphis Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane (22) celebrates a made basket in the first half against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
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Caleb Wilfinger

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Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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The NBA postseason has gotten off to a wild start, and we should have another great day of action in store on Wednesday. We’ve got a trio of contests today, starting with an early game in Memphis between the Lakers and Grizzlies. Our mega parlay includes that game, plus matchups between the Heat and Bucks as well as the Timberwolves and Nuggets. Head over to our NBA predictions for picks on the spread and total for every game on the board, but for now, let’s jump into our NBA mega parlay for Wednesday.

Grizzlies ML (+100)

Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 (-110)

Nuggets alternate spread -10.5 (+126)

NBA mega parlay odds: +763

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Memphis Grizzlies ML over Los Angeles Lakers (+100)

To start off our mega parlay, I’m backing the Grizzlies on the money line. The Lakers won the feeling-out game from LeBron James in Game 1, which has given them a huge leg-up on Memphis in this series. Rui Hachimura had a career night with 29 points on 11-for-14 shooting, Austin Reaves was terrific in the 4th quarter and Anthony Davis stuffed the stat sheet with 22 points, 12 boards, 7 blocks, 3 steals and 3 assists. Ja Morant also injured his hand in the 4th quarter and it appears that he is doubtful to suit up for Game 2 on Wednesday.

So why do I like the Grizzlies to bounce back? Simply put, this is a “nobody believes in us” game from a team that has historically fared well without Morant in the lineup over the last 2 seasons. Jaren Jackson Jr. picked up the slack with 31 points in Game 1, and he will be further encouraged to put on a show in this one after winning the Defensive Player of the Year award. This line would be Memphis laying 4-4.5 points at home with a healthy Morant, and I simply don’t believe that he’s worth 5 points to the spread given how well the Grizzlies have played without him. Memphis should be carried by a packed FedEx Forum in what is the biggest game of its season on Wednesday.

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Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 over Miami Heat (-110)

Sure, it helped that Giannis went down in the first quarter, but the Miami Heat earned that Game 1 victory over the Bucks. However, the Heat sustained a major injury too, with wing shooter Tyler Herro now out for 4-6 weeks. How they replace him and his scoring is going to be a challenge, especially with an already limited bench unit. Antetokounmpo is doubtful for Wednesday’s game, but even with his status up in the air, I like the Bucks to win convincingly.

Milwaukee has historically started slow in Game 1s under coach Mike Budenholzer before turning up the pressure on both ends in subsequent games to follow. Look for a similar trend to play out on Wednesday, as the Bucks’ defense shouldn’t allow the Heat to shoot 60% from the field for the game once again. On the other side of the ball, Milwaukee is due for some positive regression on offense, particularly from beyond the three-point arc. Khris Middleton looked as good as he has all season in Game 1 and I have major reservations about the Heat offense without the services of Herro as someone who can take the pressure off Jimmy Butler. Back Milwaukee to win without much trouble in Game 2.

Lock in our Heat vs Bucks Same Game Parlay at +1266 odds

Denver Nuggets -10.5 alternate spread over Minnesota Timberwolves (+126)

For the final leg of our mega parlay, I’m going with the Denver Nuggets on an alternate spread against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Denver already has a significant home-court advantage — one of the best in the Association — and the Nuggets flexed their muscle in a dominant win over the Timberwolves in Game 1. Nikola Jokic is listed as questionable, but I do expect him to play in this one, plus Minnesota has also listed Rudy Gobert as questionable with back spasms. This is a matchup nightmare for Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns as well. In fact, in 4 games against the Nuggets, Edwards has scored over 20 points just once. With Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Aaron Gordon likely guarding him, I would expect Edwards to be contained once again.

There should be a bounce-back effort offensively from Minnesota, but I’m still confident that Jokic, Jamal Murray and company will continue their excellent performance at home this season. Minnesota finished the campaign with just the 16th-best defensive rating in road games, while the Nuggets had the 2nd-best offensive rating at home — averaging 119.9 points per 100 possessions. Game 2 can sometimes see the home team take a step back, but I still believe Denver comes out with a sense of urgency here and wins by around 15 points. I’ll gladly play the alternate spread at this price.

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