Filip Tomic
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Most of the rosters are set and the preseason is winding down as we get closer to the start of the 2022-23 NBA season. There are plenty of betting opportunities before the season tips off on Tuesday night and I don’t know about you, but betting on teams over/under records is always a fun one for me.
Dejounte Murray, Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell all changed teams this offseason, but how will that affect their team’s over/under totals? I’ve gone in depth and picked out my 4 favorite bets this season – with two teams coming from each conference.
Continue reading below to see my analysis, but also don’t forget to check out our NBA championship picks, plus our Eastern Conference best bets and Western Conference predictions.
Philadelphia 76ers over 50.5 wins (-142)
There is no team better built for the regular season than the Philadelphia 76ers. James Harden and Joel Embiid finally enter a season after a full training camp and both are healthy and in shape. The Beard has seemingly hit the refresh button entering this season after helping the team attract new players with a pay cut in the offseason. That has allowed Philly to sign PJ Tucker, De’Anthony Melton, Montrezl Harrell and Daniel House, which should improve their bench production tremendously as they finished just 28th in bench points last season. Expect Embiid to be even more motivated to go for the MVP award after narrowly missing out to Nikola Jokic last season. If Tyrese Maxey takes his game to the next level big things can happen in Philadelphia this season.
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New Orleans Pelicans over 45.5 wins (-110)
No team’s future excites me more entering the 2022-23 season than the New Orleans Pelicans. There is a certain buzz around this team after the news of Zion Williamson and C.J. McCollum both signing lengthy extensions with the team. Together with Brandon Ingram, this team has a lot of potential and could be one of the big surprises this season. Sure, the Western Conference is stacked, but let’s not forget how well the Pelicans played in the playoffs last season, pushing the Phoenix Suns in the first round and that was without Zion Williamson, who is returning to the lineup after missing the entire season. People forget just how good he was before his injury — if he can stay healthy the Pelicans have a player capable of averaging 25 points per game on better than 60% shooting. As always, health will play a big factor, but if the Pels are able to avoid any major injury setbacks I can see them making the postseason in the loaded West.
Charlotte Hornets under 34.5 wins (-162)
After winning 43 games last season, the Hornets over/under total is set at just 34.5 games entering this year and for good reason. Things have gone from bad in the offseason to worse as we near the start of the regular season. First it was Miles Bridges and an off-court incident (which still hasn’t been resolved) and the latest hit the Hornets took was an injury to LaMelo Ball, who twisted his ankle in preseason which could rule him out for a couple of weeks. That’s not good for a team that’s desperately looking to build chemistry without two of its best players. Charlotte has lost all 5 preseason games by an average of 17.8 points per game and I just don’t see any incentive for them to be good this year. They were one of the best offensive teams last season, but without Bridges and Ball they are pretty much stuck in mediocrity and if things start badly there’s a good chance they will blow things up with a trade for disgruntled Lakers star Russell Westbrook.
Portland Trail Blazers under 39.5 wins (-110)
Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Denver Nuggets, LA Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves and the Phoenix Suns are all expected to have better records than the Portland Trail Blazers this season. Damian Lillard is coming off probably the worst season of his career as he played in just 29 games due to injury and the team won a total of 27 games. Did the Blazers improve by 13 wins this offseason? I am not so sure. A healthy Lillard should improve their record a bit, but a horrendous defensive rating of 119.3 from last season will need to improve dramatically and I’m just not sure this roster is capable of getting stops. Jusuf Nurkic isn’t really the most talented center defensively, his name has also come up in trade rumors for a while now. At 32 years old, Lillard’s time as a superstar is slowly coming to an end, there is a good chance he might end up on a different roster if things get off to a shaky start in Portland.
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