Filip Tomic
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After a convincing 17-point victory in Game 3, defending champions the Warriors are hoping to level their series against the Kings at Chase Center today. Tip off is at 3:30 pm ET on ABC and my Same Game Parlay is available below.
Don’t forget to head over to our NBA predictions for picks on the side and total for Sunday’s 4-game NBA Playoffs slate. Let’s dive into my SGP bet now.
Golden State Warriors 1-10 win margin (+175)
Draymond Green to record 1+ steals (-300)
Kevon Looney over 10.5 rebounds (+106)
Same Game Parlay odds: +637
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Golden State Warriors 1-10 win margin (+175)
There’s an old saying in the NBA: it isn’t a series until a road team wins a game. Well, I hate to disappoint everyone, but that’s probably not happening today either. Golden State is in a prime position to even things up in front of their home fans. The Warriors went 33-8 SU during the regular season at Chase Center, and Game 3 showed us just why they’ve been so dominant when playing there. They held the NBA’s best offense to just 97 points despite being without arguably their best defender in Draymond Green, who was suspended. It has been a team effort on that end for most of the regular season, which is exactly why they had the 3rd-best defensive rating when playing at home. I expect the Kings to make adjustments and let’s not forget they have Coach of the Year Mike Brown at the helm. I’m expecting a slightly closer game than the one we saw on Thursday. During the regular season 3 of the 4 meetings were decided by less than 10 points, while in this series that has been the case in 2 of the 3 games played. I expect Sacramento to put up a bit more resistance than in Game 3, but the Warriors should even things up before we head back to Sactown for Game 5.
Check out our Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors predictions
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Draymond Green to record 1+ steals (-300)
Can you imagine the level of energy Draymond Green will bring in his first game back from suspension? If there was ever a lift the Warriors needed from their emotional leader, it’s in today’s Game 4. He’s no longer the offensive player he once was, but that’s okay as his team expects him to do the dirty work these days and Draymond enjoys doing it. He has recorded at least 1 steal in both games in this series, maintaining his consistency from the regular season, which he finished with at least 1 steal in 7 of his final 8 games. The Kings are committing 14 turnovers per game in this series, which is more than during the regular season, so it’s pretty evident the pressure Green creates is bothering them. Don’t be surprised if Green gets multiple steals and blocks in this game.
Kevon Looney over 10.5 rebounds (+106)
Kevon Looney got 20 rebounds in Game 3, so we are getting really solid odds for him to grab only 11 boards in tonight’s game. Granted, with the return of Draymond Green circumstances have changed a bit and Looney is no longer the only reliable rebounder the Warriors have, but I’m still expecting him to get 11 rebounds without too much fuss. His energy and will to get to every loose ball in this series has been quite remarkable, and despite having Domantas Sabonis the Kings just haven’t been able to match it. A big reason why Looney’s rebounds have been up in the series is the Kings’ poor 3-point shooting. Through 3 games they’re averaging just 27% of makes from downtown, with their percentage dropping each game. If you’re head coach Mike Brown that should be really concerning and it’s hard to imagine them fixing their shooting woes overnight. I’m counting on Looney to clean up the glass.
Sunday’s NBA mega parlay has +1127 odds!
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