Filip Tomic
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The play-in tournament is in full swing, which means we are only days away from the 2022-23 NBA playoffs tipping off. We haven’t had this tight of a race in both conferences in a long time, and the level of excitement for the postseason is ramping up.
As we get closer to Game 1 this weekend, I think it’s time to check some of our favorite predictions for the opening rounds of the playoffs. Be sure to also bookmark our NBA predictions page for picks on the side and total for every single game this postseason.
Without any further ado, let’s jump into it!
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New York Knicks (5) vs Cleveland Cavaliers (4) series prediction
Hailed by many as the toughest first-round matchup to predict, the Knicks and Cavaliers have been on collision course for almost the last month of the regular season. This series has the potential to be a historically great one, because the 2 teams couldn’t be more evenly matched. The Knicks won the regular-season series 3-1, but they head into this one with the possibility of Julius Randle missing the first 2 games — which is a massive handicap for them. Still, even without him they had a winning record this season and at 24-17 SU in road games. Who’s to say they cannot win 1 (or even more) at Cleveland?
The Cavs finished the year at 51-31, making the postseason for the first time since LeBron James left. With a 31-10 home record, Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse was one of the toughest venues for any road team this year. Donovan Mitchell is playing at an elite level, averaging 28.3 points per game. I’m sure he will be extra motivated to prove the Knicks wrong after they opted for RJ Barrett instead of pursuing him last summer. All in all it should be a fun series. Both teams are elite on defense and I’m excited for the Jalen Brunson vs Mitchell showdown, the interior battle or Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. If I had to lean toward 1 team it would be Cleveland, but this series most likely goes 7 and backing the Knicks on the spread seems like a solid bet.
Best Bet: Knicks +1.5 series spread (-128)
Boston Celtics (2) vs Atlanta Hawks (7) series prediction
The series nobody expected to be is set to tip off on Saturday in Boston. The Celtics are the clear favorites, having won all 3 encounters during the regular season. They open as -9 favorites in Game 1. Atlanta definitely deserves some respect after defeating Jimmy Butler and the Heat in a play-in game. Trae Young finally looks to have matured as a player; there is no doubt he will once again receive special treatment from the road fans in Boston. His matchup against Derrick White could be crucial for this series. White is one of the toughest defenders at his position, but these are the playoffs and the level of competition goes up significantly.
Boston doesn’t have much to worry about. You will be hard-pressed to find someone who is backing this to go 5 or 6 games or backing Atlanta to advance. The Hawks’ biggest chance of grabbing a win will be in one of the first 3 games. Jaylen Brown suffered a hand injury which required stitches right before the final game of the regular season. He did say he will be ready in time for the postseason, but with it being his shooting hand there could be lingering issues for a couple of games in this series. If you are not at 100% in the playoffs, you will get punished more often than not. If the Hawks are able to shut him down, I have them winning a game in the first 3 meetings.
Best Bet: Celtics to lead 2-1 after Game 3 (-186)
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LA Clippers (5) vs Phoenix Suns (4) series prediction
For my best bet I have the Clippers winning at least 2 games against the highly favored Phoenix Suns. We are getting really solid odds at -132 for that to happen, as most analysts will tell you this series is going at least 6 games — with most of them counting on it to go the distance. LA has the Paul George injury hanging over its head, but there is optimism he could return in time for Game 3 — which will be played in Los Angeles. Dealing with the likes of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker won’t be easy if he isn’t at 100%, but then again let’s not forget the Clippers have a 2-time NBA Finals MVP on their team, as well.
Kawhi Leonard last played in the postseason in 2020-21, mostly due to health issues, and he is out to prove a point this time around. What better way to do that than beating the frontrunner for the championship this season? The Clippers are one of the deepest teams in the entire league with one of the best coaches we have in our game. Time is slowly running out on this core. They might not beat the Suns, but I’m counting on them winning at least 2 games in this series.
Best Bet: Clippers +2.5 series spread (-132)
Golden State Warriors (6) vs Sacramento Kings (3)
And for my longshot bet I have the Golden State Warriors squeezing out a series win against the Sacramento Kings in 7 games. Golden State won the regular-season series 3-1, but having finished the year at just 11-30 SU in road games it has shown vulnerability. Being the 6th seed here means the Dubs have to win at least 1 road game in order for them to advance — and if it goes to a Game 7 that road game will be at the Golden 1 Center.
Sacramento made the postseason after a 16-year long drought and its reward is the defending champions in the first round. It’s not exactly the scenario Kings fans hoped for, but it’s hard to complain following a 48-34 season in the loaded West. This team’s biggest flaws are its inexperience and lack of presence on the defensive end. Only 4 teams allowed more points per game than the Kings during the regular season and neither of them made it into the postseason. Although the Warriors haven’t shined on that end, either, they still proved they can turn it up when needed. The defending champions have been battle tested; I have them winning this series most likely in 6 or 7 games, so the +500 odds for a Game 7 victory are very tempting.
Longshot: Golden State Warriors 4-3 series correct score (+500)
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