Filip Tomic
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It’s a Western Conference showdown tonight in LA as the Phoenix Suns come to town. Will they win their 8th game in a row, or can LeBron James and co. bounce back from their loss to the Clippers on Wednesday? You can watch the game live from 10:30 pm on NBA TV, and I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay to make things a little bit more interesting.
Get ready for Friday’s NBA slate by going through our NBA predictions, where you will find picks on the side and total for all 11 games. Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Under 217.5 alternate total points (+205)
LeBron James 3+ made threes (+150)
Parlay odds: +807
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Under 217.5 alternate total points (+205)
Since the All-Star break these have been the 5th and 6th-ranked teams in terms of defensive rating in the NBA. We’ve seen quite a few Lakers games go under the total over the past month or so, and 10 of their last 13 at Crypto.com Arena have cashed on that bet. For the season they are 16-23 on the O/U when playing in their own arena, while against the Suns over the last 10 head-to-head they’re averaging just 102.4 points per game. Phoenix is at 116.8 points during that stretch, but considering Kevin Durant, Deandre Ayton, Chris Paul and Devin Booker are all expected to miss tonight’s game they might struggle to even break the 100-point barrier. The lowest total in 3 meetings between these teams this season was 220 points, so it will take a huge defensive effort by the Lakers or a poor shooting night by the Suns reserves for us to go under 217.5 points, but that’s quite possible. I know backing such a low number isn’t all that popular these days in the NBA, but the odds we are getting here are quite tempting.
Read our Phoenix Suns vs LA Lakers predictions
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LeBron James 3+ made threes (+150)
We don’t normally see LeBron James play on the second night of back-to-backs, but when he does he shows no signs of fatigue. In 6 such games this season he’s averaging 35.5 minutes per game, scoring 34 points on over 54% shooting from the field while making 3.3 threes on 44.4% efficiency from downtown. The game against the Clippers the other night has probably drained him as he’s still ramping up his minutes following the foot injury, so there is a chance he might not even play tonight. If he does play, though, I think he will be a bit more passive than usual, settling more for the 3-point shot as opposed to initiating contact and drawing fouls. He averages 7.5 attempts from three in second nights of back-to-backs this season, that should be enough to get to 3 threes made against a Phoenix team that’s expected to feature mostly bench players as they’re settled into the 4th seed already and have nothing to play for.
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