Filip Tomic
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We have the top 2 MVP candidates going at it tonight at Ball Arena as Nikola Jokic and his Denver Nuggets host Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers. Tip-off is scheduled for 9.30 pm on NBA TV, I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay to spice things up a bit!
Don’t forget to check our NBA Predictions page for picks on the side and total on all 8 Monday games.
Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Denver Nuggets -5 Point Spread (-112)
Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Assists (-118)
Joel Embiid to Score 35+ Points (-105)
Parlay odds: +638
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Denver Nuggets -5 Point Spread (-112)
Losing James Harden to an Achilles injury has been a massive blow to the 76ers ambitions of finishing 2nd in the East. With just 1 win in their last 4 games the Celtics are now 2.5 games ahead of them and if Philly isn’t careful even the Cavaliers who are 2 games behind could cause them issues. Harden’s status is up in the air ahead of tonight’s game as well, that’s a massive handicap for Philly. Denver is one of the toughest home teams in the NBA, they’re 17-3 SU in their last 20 at Ball Arena. Over their last 5 games overall they’re 4-1 ATS/SU, and without any significant injuries to report they are 5-point favorites for a reason here. If the Nuggets can beat the Bucks by 23 at home, they most certainly can beat Philly by 5 points, especially if Harden doesn’t play. Sixers are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs Western Conference opponents, I’m going with the Nuggets in this one.
Check out tonight’s Philadelphia 76ers vs Denver Nuggets Predictions
Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Assists (-118)
Jokic’s MVP case took a bit of a hit midway through March, not because of his own play, but because his team had a stretch where they lost 4 games in a row and 5 of their last 6. Fortunately for Nuggets fans that’s now behind them. Denver has bounced back in a big way winning 4 of their last 5 games and more importantly beating the Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points in their last game on Saturday. Jokic led all scorers with an impressive 31 points and I feel like with a win tonight the odds would once again swing in his favor in the MVP race. Unlike Embiid who focuses on dominating the game with his scoring, Jokic is more of a finesse player and likes to get his teammates involved. He’s averaging 9.1 assists per game over his last 10 outings, while clearing the 9.5 dimes line twice in his last 3 outings. Getting a triple-double against the opponent he’s battling for the MVP award would send out a big statement, so I think that will be the goal for Jokic here. With sharpshooters like Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray, plus an inside presence like Aaron Gordon and a three-point threat in Caldwell-Pope, I think he’ll have plenty of options to pass the ball to. Philly’s defense has struggled a bit over their last 2 games allowing 120+ against both Phoenix and Golden State so I think Jokic gets the job done here.
Joel Embiid to Score 35+ Points (-105)
Embiid has no option but to carry the Sixers offensively here, especially if Harden isn’t able to play due to his Achilles injury. The big fella is averaging 34 points over the last 10 games, that number would have been even higher if it wasn’t for the 12 point game he had vs Chicago where he went off after just 16 minutes with an injury. Thankfully that’s now behind him, he just had 46 points at Chase Center vs the Warriors, that’s 1 point less than what he dropped on Jokic and the Nuggets back in late January when they played each other in Philadelphia. In the meeting before that he had 34, so I think it’s pretty safe to say Embiid will go all out offensively here. Denver isn’t exactly elite when it comes to defending the paint, they allow 52.8 points per game from that area this season which is only 25th in the NBA. Look for Embiid to have a field day here, but in a losing effort.
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