Filip Tomic
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Game 3 is already a must-win situation for the Brooklyn Nets as they find themselves 2-0 down against the mighty Philadelphia 76ers. Tip-off at Barclays Center is at 7:30 pm ET on TNT, and I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay which you can find below.
We also have picks on the side and total for tonight’s other NBA Playoffs games in our NBA predictions, so make sure you check those out. Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Over 209.5 points (-110)
Joel Embiid over 30.5 points (-106)
Mikal Bridges over 26.5 points (-113)
Same Game Parlay odds: +408
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Over 209.5 points (-110)
I feel like the projected total is just too low here at just 209.5 points. That number was exceeded fairly easily in 3 of the teams’ 4 regular-season games and in the series opener when they combined for 222 points. Granted, Game 2 ended with neither team clearing the 100-point mark, but I doubt they’ll have another bad shooting night in back-to-back games, especially with the series now moving to Brooklyn for Games 3 and 4. Brooklyn finished the regular season with the 4th-best assist ratio, which tells us their ball movement should be a lot better than in the first 2 games and that should lead to more scoring opportunities. The Sixers have also played a lot faster on the road than at home during the regular season with 23 of their 41 games going over the total. They finished the year with a 4-1 run on the O/U in their last 5 games, and also had the best offensive rating by far on the road this season at 118.2. With 4 of the last 6 meetings this season finishing over the total, I think all those trends will continue on Thursday night, so let’s go with the over.
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Joel Embiid over 30.5 points (-106)
Although they’ve kept Joel Embiid under 30 points in both games so far, the Nets haven’t been able to contain Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey, and that has been the series so far. For Game 3 I’m expecting head coach Jacque Vaughn to completely change his approach. Multiple analysts have pointed out that the Nets would have a much higher chance of winning if they allowed Embiid to go off, while not permitting the others to get going. Embiid attempted only 11 shots in Game 2, and that will need to go up to at least 20 or even more in the next 2 games. Prior to this series he had gone over 30 points in 9 of his last 13 games against the Nets, so it’s only a matter of time until he gets back to that. Game 3 seems like the perfect opportunity to do so. The Sixers cannot afford to give the Nets any life here as going up 3-0 would pretty much wrap up the series with no team having ever come back from that deficit in the NBA Playoffs.
We also have a great Same Game Parlay for the Kings vs Warriors game
Mikal Bridges over 26.5 points (-113)
After scoring 30 in the series opener, Mikal Bridges had a modest 21 points on Monday as he went just 2-for-8 from deep in a 12-point loss. With the series now shifting to Brooklyn for the next 2 games I’m expecting him to up his game. Since joining the Nets he has played 14 times at Barclays Center (not counting the last game of the season when he played just 4 seconds), and during that stretch he averaged 28.7 points per game on almost 49% shooting from the field and 34% from three. Aside from him, only Cameron Johnson has been consistent in both games in this series, so the Nets don’t really have many option on offense to turn to. Spencer Dinwiddie can’t seem to get it going, and the role players haven’t shown all that much either. Bridges looked unstoppable for stretches in the series opener, especially when James Harden was guarding him. If he is his main assignment in tonight’s game, I think Bridges might even go for 30 points, but let’s play it a bit safer and back him to score 27.
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