The NBA Finals continues in South Beach tonight as the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat play Game 3. The Nuggets easily won Game 1 in Denver, but the Heat stole Game 2 behind an incredible 4th-quarter effort from their bench. Now in Game 3, anything can happen. Here are my favorite NBA Finals bets for Game 3.
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Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat First Half Under 110 (-120)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
The Nuggets and Heat play a pivotal game 3 in Miami with the series tied at a game apiece. Both teams shooting in Game 1 left something to be desired. Miami was poor all around while Denver made just 29% of their 3-pointers in the game and as such, the game stayed under the total. Oddsmakers dropped the opening total for Game 2 by 4 points, and both professional bettors and the public bet it back up. Game 2 saw both teams shoot much better with Miami at 48% from the field and 3-point range and Denver at 52% from the field and 39% from beyond the arc. Game 2 went over the total, but I expect some regression as the series shifts to Miami and the Nuggets home/road splits aren’t good.
They are a much worse shooting team away from Denver as their overall shooting drops 2 percentage points and their 3-point shooting drops over 3 percentage points. Not only that, but their scoring drops 7 points on the road. I’ll bank against Miami hitting nearly 50% from 3 in back-to-back games too since Miami shot better than 45% from 3-point range 6 times this post season, but only once did they do it in back-to-back games, and it was Game 6 and 7 against Boston. The Heat making 8 3-pointers in the first half isn’t happening again. The first half total of 110 here is just a point lower than where Game 2’s first half total was at 111. They didn’t eclipse the 1H total in Game 2 and I don’t expect in Game 3.
Check out our Nuggets vs Heat Same Game Parlay for Game 3
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Denver Nuggets -1.5 (-110) over Miami Heat
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
The Nuggets defense let them down in Game 2. It was a game they should have at least won if they didn’t cover. Denver shot 52% from the field and 39% from 3-point range and lost. However, the Heat were the team that needed blistering shooting, particularly from beyond the arc, where they remained above at least 45% for the entire game. The Heat don’t win without that. The real question is can they do it again? History during these playoffs says it’s not likely. In the first 4 games where the Heat shot at least 45% from 3-point range, they are averaging shooting 28% from deep the next game. They shot better than 45% from 3 in back-to-back games against Boston in Games 6 & 7, but then shot 33.3% in Game 1 against Denver. Simply, put the chances of the Heat staying that hot from 3 aren’t in their favor.
The Nuggets should get a prime game from Nikola Jokic, who after a playoff loss this year has responded incredibly well. After the loss to Minnesota, he had a triple-double the next game. After the first loss to Phoenix, he scored 53 points (in a loss) in the next game. After the second loss to Phoenix, he posted another triple-double. Jokic will respond again in Game 3 when his team needs him the most. I expect this game to be a little lower scoring, especially with Denver being a different team on the road, but this is a short enough number for me to back the Nuggets laying the points here.
Prop Holliday has 4 player prop best bets for Game 3
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