We’re onto Game 4 in the NBA Finals as the Denver Nuggets lead the series 2-1. After a big win for Denver in Game 1, a comeback win for the Heat in Game 2 and a statement win for the Nuggets in Game 3, Nikola Jokic and company are -800 favorites to win the Finals. After going 2-0 in Game 3, I have 2 more best bets to make for Friday night’s game.
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Denver Nuggets Team Total Over 106.5 (-120)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
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Denver Nuggets -3.5 (-105) over Miami Heat
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Game 4 of the NBA Finals feels like a must-win for the Miami Heat in order to avoid a 3-1 hole to the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have dominated this series and they have outscored or outshot the Heat in 11 of the 12 quarters played so far. Without Miami’s incredible and unlikely shooting in 4th quarter of Game 2, where they shot better than 68% from the field and 55% from beyond the arc, they would be down 0-3 in this series. The Heat defense has left a lot to be desired as well. They have not been able to stop the Nuggets offense or Nikola Jokic in this series at all. Denver hasn’t needed to be great from deep because the are outrebounding Miami by a wide margin and shooting 59.6% on their 2-point shots.
Miami’s only chance for a win here is to get “playoff Jimmy” to have one of his signature games. Without that, Miami doesn’t stand a chance. The Heat have kept themselves alive with albeit sporadic, but very hot 3-point shooting in games – see the 4th quarter of Game 2. The bottom line is that Denver is much better than Miami, and Denver is much better than Boston too. It’s easy to forget that the Nuggets had the best regular season record in the NBA this season, and yet, oddsmakers are still undervaluing them. I think the Nuggets take full control of this series and win another game on the Heat’s home court. I’ll lay the 3.5 with Denver.
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