Filip Tomic
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The Knicks were able to avoid elimination with a big win in Game 5 at home, but now they have a tough task as they head into Miami for Game 6. Will the Heat advance to their third Conference Finals in 4 seasons? Tip-off is at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN and, after landing a +516 odds Same Game Parlay in Game 5, I’ve prepared another one for Game 6.
Don’t forget to also check our NBA predictions for picks on the side and total for Game 6 of Golden State Warriors vs LA Lakers. Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Miami Heat ML (-210)
Jimmy Butler to record 8+ rebounds (+135)
Kyle Lowry over 4.5 assists (+106)
Same Game Parlay odds: +512
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Miami Heat ML (-210)
Miami got outshot from the 3-point line by 38.2% to 30.2% in Game 5, while taking 21 fewer free throws than the Knicks and it resulted in a 112-103 loss. I’m expecting a different game on Friday as the series switches back to the Kaseya Center where the Heat are undefeated in these playoffs. Jimmy Butler was scrutinized for not being aggressive scoring the basketball, but with an opportunity to advance to the next round at home you have to think we’ll see Playoff Jimmy in full effect. In their building the Heat are shooting 36.0% from 3 during the 2023 playoffs and I’ll confidently take the far superior team to close it out with a bounce-back from Butler and the shooters. Miami has gone 9-2 SU in the last 11 home games against the Knicks, and the Heat have covered the spread in 5 games in a row in this arena. They also have an average margin of victory of 10.9 points in wins in these playoffs.
Read our New York Knicks vs Miami Heat predictions
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Jimmy Butler to record 8+ rebounds (+135)
Jimmy Butler has been involved in 17 potential close-out games in his career and in his last 7 with the Miami Heat he is averaging 7.4 rebounds per game. In 5 of those games he has cleared this line with ease. It all comes down to effort in games like this and nobody gives more of it than Butler. He was just 1 rebound shy on Wednesday, which was his 2nd-highest total for the series, in which he’s averaging 7 boards per game. Butler also had 8 boards in the close-out Game 5 of the first round against Milwaukee, and that gives me added confidence that this is a good bet. It’s never easy to close out a series, so I’m not expecting a pretty game. Both teams will put in the defensive effort which should hopefully result in a few more missed shots than usual, helping Butler get to 8 rebounds.
Check out our Golden State Warriors vs LA Lakers Same Game Parlay at +539 odds!
Kyle Lowry over 4.5 assists (+106)
I had Kyle Lowry to record at least 4 assists in both of my SGP winners earlier in this series and he delivered on both occasions. Experience is a valuable trait to have in situations like this, and I would argue only Butler has had more of it than Lowry on the Heat roster. The 37-year-old point guard is averaging 5 dimes per game in this series, collecting 5 of them in 3 of the 5 games played. Lowry has been taking good care of the ball, committing just 1 turnover per game in the series and none in both games played in Miami. In games like these you want the ball to be in the hands of your most reliable players and Lowry is certainly one of those for Miami, along with Butler. In 43 career games against the Knicks he is averaging 5.9 assists per game and although he’s past his prime, he still has a lot left in the tank.
Our Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics Game 7 predictions are also available
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