NBA MVP odds and futures predictions for 2023/24 season: Redemption year for Luka Doncic?

The 2022/23 NBA season is in the books and the Denver Nuggets are your champions for the first time in franchise history. They were led by the incredible Nikola Jokic who averaged 30.2 points, 14 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 1.4 steals per game, while shooting 58.3% from the field and 42.1% from 3-point land. The Serbian big man added the Finals MVP trophy to his cabinet, wrapping up what was arguably his best year in the NBA so far.

As we slowly begin to turn our attention to next season, DraftKings have already published their early odds for the 2023/24 NBA regular season MVP award. Here are some notable names to look out for:

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NBA 2023-2024 MVP odds

Nikola Jokic +450
Giannis Antetokounmpo +550
Luka Doncic +550
Joel Embiid +650
Jayson Tatum +900
Kevin Durant +1200
Stephen Curry +1200
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +1500
Devin Booker +1800
LeBron James +2200

We all remember how the 2023 NBA MVP award played out. Nikola Jokic was on pace to 3-peat as the Most Valuable Player, but he seemingly folded under the pressure late in the season and missed a few games to rest and prepare for the playoffs, which might have ultimately given the edge to Joel Embiid. The Joker had the last laugh though. While Embiid flamed out of the postseason in the 2nd round posting pedestrian numbers against the Nets and Celtics, Jokic went on to capture his first ring and capped it off with the Finals MVP award.

While the champagne is still flowing through the streets of Denver, the oddsmakers have listed Jokic as the favorite at +450 to win the award for the 3rd time. So, can the Joker take the award to Serbia one more time?

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NBA 2023-2024 MVP predictions: Value On Jokic?

Under normal circumstances I would definitely consider backing him. However, voter fatigue is something that we have to take into consideration here. The NBA is always on the hunt for that next big star and we’ve seen players in the past get overlooked just because they’ve won the award already. For example, Giannis Antetokounmpo wasn’t seriously considered for this season’s award, despite putting up monster numbers and his team finishing with the best record in the entire NBA. Because of this I feel like backing Jokic isn’t the way to go, at least not from a betting perspective.

Of course, I am still expecting him to put up monster numbers and his team to be good next year. However, the upcoming season might be the toughest one of his career so far, as the Nuggets will now have a target on their back every single night they hit the NBA hardwood as champions. Also, playing into mid-June is physically and mentally draining, so that too could also have a negative effect on the entire team as it leaves less time to rest and recover for next year. All in all, the odds on Jokic are just too low to justify a bet in my opinion.

NBA 2023-2024 MVP Best Bet: Luka Doncic (+550)

We’re not even in mid-June and images and videos of Luka Doncic are already surfacing from Slovenia. He looks a lot leaner which is definitely a good sign as we’ve seen him struggle to get into shape at the start of the last couple of seasons. This will also help with his endurance, after playing 72 games as a rookie, he hasn’t played more than 66 games over the past 4 seasons. With his team failing to make the postseason, Doncic should be extra motivated to get back into the thick of things. The roster situation is still up in the air as we head into the offseason, but we’ve seen players win MVP awards in the past while being the sole option on offense for their team.

For example, LeBron James captured his first MVP award at the age of 24 with his starting 5 including the likes of Mo Williams, Delonte West, Anderson Varejao and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Doncic will turn 24 in February of 2024, he is just entering his prime and will only improve as time goes on. After opening the past 2 seasons as the betting favorite to win the MVP, this time around, Doncic is ranked 3rd, and I believe it’s time he finally took his game to the next level.

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