Filip Tomic
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After an action-packed weekend in the NBA Playoffs we have 2 more games on Monday night. On Sunday I was just 1 pick away from landing my +1127 odds NBA mega parlay, so I’m hoping for a bit more luck on today’s selections.
Visit our NBA predictions for picks on the spread and total for both Game 4s taking place tonight. Let’s get into my mega parlay now.
Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 (-110)
Over 217.5 points in Bucks vs Heat (-110)
Memphis Grizzlies ML (+160)
Parlay odds: +840
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Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 (-110)
Giannis Antetokounmpo has played only 11 minutes in this series and without him the Bucks have lost twice by double-digit margins, but they also won by double digits at home. His status is still up in the air as of writing this preview, but even if he does not suit up Milwaukee needs to get serious. Going down 3-1 would be unimaginable against a team that barely made it into the postseason. The biggest strength of the Miami Heat is their ability to always find a way to come up with contributors off the bench. I still like the Bucks in Game 4, regardless of the Greek Freak’s availability. In the Game 2 victory without him they got 20+ points from 3 different players, so I’m expecting Brook Lopez, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton to step up. Miami has been a tough opponent, but let’s not forget the Heat did lose to an average Hawks team at home not too long ago. I’ll take the Bucks to cover.
Don’t forget to check our full Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat predictions.
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Over 217.5 points in Bucks vs Heat (-110)
All 3 games in this series have gone over the total quite comfortably, which is a bit surprising considering we have the 29th-ranked team in pace this season. Miami averages only 98 possessions per game, and the Heat are also 25th in offensive efficiency, but somehow they’ve gone over 120 points in all 3 games so far. That just tells you how much the Bucks depend on Giannis, especially on the defensive end. The over has now cashed in 6 of the last 7 Milwaukee road games and in their last 5 overall. For the Heat it has happened 8 times in their last 10 and in 7 of their last 9 against Eastern Conference opponents. At just 217.5 points, the oddsmakers are continuing to stick with a relatively low total. With all the overs I mentioned earlier and the teams averaging 229 points in their last 10 meetings, I think backing a fair amount of points is the way to go.
Memphis Grizzlies ML (+160)
Similarly to the Minnesota Timberwolves last night, tonight’s matchup with the Lakers is most likely the game of the season for the Memphis Grizzlies. They aren’t in a situation where they’re trying to avoid a sweep like the T-Wolves, but going down 3-1 in a series makes it extremely difficult to come back. Out of 270 teams in NBA Playoffs history only 13 have come back to win, so the odds of Ja Morant and co. advancing would be very slim in that scenario. Speaking of Ja, he returned to the lineup with a monster stat line of 45 points and 13 assists, just 1 rebound shy of a triple-double. The reason why Memphis lost Game 3 was because they fell behind big early in the game and it was just impossible to come back from that. Adjustments will be made in Game 4, and this team has been battle-tested far too many times this season for them to go away easily. The Lakers will also have a say in this game and both Anthony Davis and LeBron James produced solid numbers in the win on Saturday. However, after going up 35-9 in the 1st quarter, LA got outscored 92-76 the rest of the way. Memphis grabbed 7 more offensive rebounds, shot better from 3-point land, and scored 26 points off turnovers. This is still a top-3 team in terms of defensive rating, so I think they’ll have what it takes to even things up.
Read our full analysis of Memphis Grizzlies vs LA Lakers.
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