Filip Tomic
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Playing the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round sounds a lot more enticing than going up against 2-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. The Lakers and Timberwolves battle it out for the 7th seed tonight at Crypto.com Arena. Tip-off is at 10:00 pm ET on TNT — continue reading below to see my Same Game Parlay.
Head over to our NBA predictions for picks on the side and total for the rest of the play-in games taking place this week! Let’s dive into my SGP bet now.
Minnesota Timberwolves +8 (-110)
LeBron James over 2.5 made threes (-120)
Anthony Davis over 25.5 points (-122)
Parlay odds: +640
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Minnesota Timberwolves +8 (-110)
There’s a lot of negative media comments being thrown at the Minnesota Timberwolves right now, mostly due to the incident in their final game of the regular season which saw Rudy Gobert punching teammate Kyle Anderson. As a result Gobert did not travel to LA and will miss the play-in game against the Lakers, but I don’t feel like that’s a huge loss to the Timberwolves. We saw their play improve after Gobert was ejected against the Pelicans and they were able to win without him to clinch the 8th spot. There have been chemistry issues between him and Karl-Anthony Towns all season, so I’m expecting KAT to play a lot better with him out of the lineup. The Lakers are still huge favorites though, and I still expect them to win this game. They opened as 5.5-point favorites, but now that line is up to 8 points and I’m just not sure that’s realistic for a play-in game. Only 2 of the 6 play-in games last season were decided by more than 8 points, which tells us these type of games go down the wire most of the time. Expect that to be the case tonight, but ultimately the Lakers should prevail with LeBron and AD doing the most of the heavy lifting.
Our Tuesday NBA mega parlay has +957 odds!
LeBron James over 2.5 made threes (-120)
Speaking of LeBron, I was very impressed with the way he ended the regular season from behind the 3-point line. In 4 consecutive games he was able to drain at least 3 threes, including 8 of them in the final game on Sunday against the Jazz. His percentage was also very respectable during that stretch at 43.2% so there’s a really good chance he can continue that run tonight against Minnesota. The Timberwolves aren’t exactly a great three-point defensive team. They allowed 36.9% of made threes during the regular season which ranked them only 24th in the league. With Gobert out of the way, I’m sure the Lakers will attempt more shots from inside the paint, but when someone has it going like LeBron you have to continue feeding the hot hand.
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Anthony Davis over 25.5 points (-122)
Anthony Davis has dominated the Timberwolves this season, averaging 38 points per game in 2 games against them. Although he finished under 20 points in his final 3 games of the regular season, things get a lot more serious tonight and his team will need him to step up offensively and carry them into the promise land. Minnesota’s struggles defending the paint are well documented – teams are scoring 54.7 points per game from that area against them in their last 3 and those numbers are only going to get worse with Gobert out of the lineup. In his career Davis has played Minnesota 27 times and his average is at 26.3 points per game and since joining the Lakers that number is at 31.4 points in 5 meetings on almost 60% shooting. I’m counting on AD to deliver.
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