Filip Tomic
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Minnesota and Denver will wrap up Day 2 of the 2023 NBA Playoffs as they begin their series at Ball Arena tonight. Tip-off is live from 10:30 pm on TNT, I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay which is available below.
Head over to our NBA Predictions page for picks on the side and total for all 4 NBA games taking place today.
Let’s dive into my SGP bet now.
Over 230.5 Alt. Total Points (+158)
Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 Made Threes (-130)
Mike Conley 2+ Made Threes (-290)
Parlay odds: +460
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Over 230.5 Alt. Total Points (+158)
Both meetings at Ball Arena produced 240 points during the regular season, and 3 of the 4 games went over 230 points. The Nuggets aren’t exactly known for their pace, but they’ve dominated in terms of efficiency, spending most of the regular season in the top 3 alongside Boston and Sacramento. Minnesota does like to run since they finished the regular season as the 7th fastest team in the league averaging 102.7 possessions per game. They’ll be counting on their offensive production to grab a game or two from the Nuggets here. With 5 of the last 6 meetings overall producing at least 235 points, and the last 6 in Denver going over 230, I think backing the over is the way to go here.
Check out our Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Predictions
Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 Made Threes (-130)
Porter Jr. has the ultimate green light on offense for the Nuggets, more than any other player I would say. He’s been lighting it up towards the end of the season averaging 3.4 makes from distance on 41% efficiency, while playing just 29.3 minutes per game. With the rotations shortening in the playoffs, he should go over 30 minutes easily here, so it’s natural to assume he will get more shot attempts up as well. Minnesota has ranked in the bottom 10 for most of the season in opponent three-point percentage. They finished in 23rd place allowing 36.8% of made threes per game, and Porter Jr. could be in line for a big series against them. We should also mention that Anthony Edwards is dealing with a shoulder injury, other than him, the Timberwolves currently don’t have many options to match the size and length of Porter Jr. here.
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Mike Conley 2+ Made Threes (-290)
He might not be the most athletic player out there, but Conley is the most experienced Timberwolves player by far going into this series. Just like Porter Jr., he too has been cooking from three point land in his last 10 games. On 2.9 made shots per game, he’s averaging just 6 attempts for an efficiency of 48.3% which is quite remarkable. The lefty cleared this line in both play-in games, knocking down 6 threes vs the Lakers and then a pair vs OKC on Friday. With Ant-Man still struggling with his shooting hand, his role on offense will once again expand here, so I’m expecting a productive scoring night. He’s currently on a streak of 6 games in a row vs Denver with at least 2 threes made, dating back to 2017 when he was with Memphis, and Conley has made 2 threes in 13 of 15 meetings.
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