Filip Tomic
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In their first-ever game in the NBA Finals, the Denver Nuggets host the Miami Heat at Ball Arena on Thursday night. Tip-off is at 8:30 pm ET on ABC and I’ve prepared a Heat vs Nuggets Same Game Parlay which you can find below. It’s also worth bookmarking our NBA Predictions page as we provide picks on the side and total for every single NBA Finals matchup. But for now, let’s dive into my SGP.
Over 219.5 points (-110)
Nikola Jokic 1+ made threes (-310)
Duncan Robinson 2+ made threes (-150)
Kyle Lowry over 3.5 assists (+108)
Same Game Parlay odds: +629
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Over 219.5 points (-110)
It’s really refreshing to see a projected total of 219 points for a Miami Heat game after the line was set at just 203.5 points for their Game 7 against Boston. These teams eclipsed 219 points in both games this regular season and in 5 of their last 7 meetings. Betting on the over returned a profit in the last 5 meetings, while the 3 most recent games saw an average of 231.2 points. We probably won’t see that many points in the series opener — after all, this is the playoffs and defense is being played.
I think we could end up in the mid-220s in this game. Miami has gone over the total in 10 of their last 13 road games and in 6 straight against Northwest Division opponents. Despite not playing for more than a week, the Nuggets should be able to assert themselves offensively against a mentally and physically drained Heat team. They own the best offensive rating in this postseason at 119.7 points per 100 possessions, which is almost 3 points better than the next-best team. Miami ranks 5th in offensive rating overall and 3rd in road games. I’m expecting a free-flowing offensive game from both teams, so I’ll back the over.
Make sure you check out our full Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Game 1 predictions
Nikola Jokic 1+ made threes (-310)
Jokic didn’t seem all that enthusiastic after winning the Western Conference Finals MVP award — he knows that his legacy will be judged on how he performs at the biggest stage. So far, he’s been unstoppable during this postseason run, averaging a triple-double and just under 30 points per game. More importantly for our bet, he’s been knocking down threes for fun at a 47.4% clip, which is a huge bump up from the 38.3% he averaged during the regular season.
Denver has played 15 games so far in this postseason run and in only 3 of those has he failed to knock down a three, while in 9 of them he scored on multiple attempts. Against Miami during the regular season, Jokic was very efficient, shooting 69% from the field and 66.7% from deep. He has the size advantage over Bam Adebayo down low, but if the Heat defense figures out a way to stop him on the inside, Jokic is more than capable of stepping outside and delivering for the Nuggets.
We’ve got NBA Finals MVP Odds, Predictions and Series Props, including a +1400 pick
Duncan Robinson 2+ made threes (-150)
The one advantage heading into this series Miami has, at least statistically, is their bench scoring. Through 3 series they are getting 35.6 points per game off the pine, while the Nuggets are at just 19.5 per game. A big reason for that scoring has certainly been Duncan Robinson, who has stepped up when Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo and Gabe Vincent all went down with injuries. He has scored at least 2 threes in each of his last 7 games this postseason run, coming up big in the Boston series as he shot 48.4% from three.
Robinson was also red-hot from deep in Round 1 against the Bucks, converting on 2.8 threes per game on 73.7% efficiency. He played in only 1 of the 2 regular season games against Denver in which he scored 3 threes on 42.9% shooting. If we look at his last 6 career games against the Nuggets dating back to 2020, Robinson failed to score 2 threes in just 1 of those games while shooting 34%.
Get our expert’s 2023 NBA Finals Series Predictions, which has a +400 best bet
Kyle Lowry over 3.5 assists (+108)
Since joining Miami, Lowry has faced the Nuggets 3 times and has recorded 4, 14 and 3 assists. His experience was once again on display in Game 7 against the Celtics. Although he finished with a modest 7 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists, he ended the game with the best +/- numbers for Miami at +26. That’s what leaders do, they step up and bring stability when it’s needed the most and there is no bigger stage than the NBA Finals.
Lowry played once in the NBA Finals with the Toronto Raptors when they upset the Golden State Warriors back in 2019, so that experience will definitely come in handy for this series. In 18 games during this postseason run, he is averaging 4.3 assists per game and after clearing this line in every single game against the Knicks, Lowry did so in 4 of the 7 games against Boston. The fatigue level will be high among the Heat starters, so I believe his role could expand a bit in this series which should lead to an increase in productivity. Let’s hope that’s the case in Game 1.
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