Filip Tomic
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The NBA finalists from 2011 resume their rivalry tonight in Dallas as the Mavericks host the Miami Heat while trying to end a 3-game losing streak. You can catch the game live from 7:30 pm ET on ESPN, and I’ve also prepared a Heat vs Mavericks Same Game Parlay to spice things up a little. Head over to our NBA predictions for picks on the side and total for each of tonight’s matchups, but now let’s get into our SGP.
Over 218.5 points (-110)
Bam Adebayo to score 25+ points (+175)
Luka Doncic to score 35+ points (-115)
Same Game Parlay odds: +537
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Over 218.5 points (-110)
If you look at the pace both teams are playing at this season, backing the over might sound counterintuitive, but I don’t think it is. The Mavs have been a disaster on that end over their last 3 games, allowing 130, 140 and 136 points against not-so-elite offensive teams. Both teams also rank in the top 10 when it comes to having the fewest turnovers per game, so they don’t waste a lot of possessions, also important when backing the over. If we look at the last 3 seasons and the last 6 meetings between the teams, only 2 have seen fewer points than tonight’s projected total.
The last game at American Airlines Center finished with 235 points scored, and we need only 219 to clear tonight’s number. Miami has seen at least 220 points in its last 2 games, as have the last 4 Mavs games. Six of the last 7 Mavs home games have gone over the total, and I’m expecting that trend to carry on to tonight’s game.
Bam Adebayo to score 25+ points (+175)
The injury to Christian Wood will be a huge blow to the Mavericks as they already have a few players out and their front line is looking very thin at the moment. Adebayo is the perfect player to exploit this tonight and he has been averaging 23.8 points per game over his last 9 outings, while against the New Orleans Pelicans in his last game he finished with 26 points. In their last game the Mavs have given up 56 points from inside the paint, for comparison the San Antonio Spurs have the worst mark in the NBA this season, allowing 55.5 per game.
Adebayo has gone over 20 points in both of his last 2 games against the Mavs, let’s hope he can take advantage of the current defensive woes of the Mavs and punish them on the inside.
Luka Doncic to score 35+ points (-115)
Not having Wood by his side is a major blow to Luka Doncic, who won’t be able to get as many assists he normally does, so instead he will have to revert back to playing hero ball and making up for the 18.4 points per game Wood has been averaging this season. Luka is at 34.8 points per game this season when playing at home, while also shooting 51.5% from the field and almost 35% from three. Scoring 30 against the Hawks wasn’t enough, and Luka no longer has the help from Jalen Brunson he had last season, so for the Mavs to win games he needs to go full-on superman on a nightly basis.
As good as the Heat are on defense, they have one big flaw this season and that is defending the perimeter. They rank 26th in opponent 3-point percentage this season, while over their last 3 games teams have averaged 42.9% of makes against them. Luka’s career high against Miami is 33 points from last season, and I think it’s time for him to set a new record tonight.
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