Filip Tomic
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Memphis blew out Milwaukee in the teams’ first meeting of the season, and tonight they have to beat them again to secure the #2 seed in the West. You can watch that game live from 8:00 pm ET on NBA TV, and I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay which is available below.
Head over to our NBA predictions for picks on the side and total on a massive 11-game night! Let’s dive into my SGP bet now.
Memphis Grizzlies – 11+ win margin (+125)
Jaren Jackson Jr. to record 8+ rebounds (-145)
Ja Morant over 24.5 points (-118)
Parlay odds: +518
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Memphis Grizzlies – 11+ win margin (+125)
Memphis opened as 3-point favorites, but that line is up to 8 points and climbing as we get closer to tip-off. The biggest reason that’s happening is the fact that the Bucks are expected to rest a decent chunk of their starting unit, most notably Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton. Giving a few extra days of rest to their starters could be vital down the stretch in the postseason when the stakes are higher. Tonight’s game is basically meaningless for Milwaukee as they’ve wrapped up the #1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the NBA Playoffs. Memphis still hasn’t secured the #2 seed in the West, but they will do so either with a win tonight or if Sacramento loses at home to Golden State. The Grizzlies beat the Bucks 142-101 in mid-December when the teams first met, and I’m not expecting a blowout on that scale tonight, but they should be able to win by at least 11 points.
Check our Memphis Grizzlies vs Milwaukee Bucks predictions
Jaren Jackson Jr. to record 8+ rebounds (-145)
Scoring 40 points won’t be necessary for Jaren Jackson Jr. with Ja Morant returning to the lineup. Instead JJJ can focus on making a case for the Defensive Player of the Year award with a productive night on the glass. He needs only 8 rebounds to land our bet, and he’s done that in 6 of his last 8 games, while against the Bucks he had 6 of them in only 13 minutes in December. Milwaukee’s interior presence will be heavily weakened without Giannis and Brook Lopez, and we saw Bobby Portis grab 13 boards in the game against Chicago the other night. Jackson Jr. is a much better player on the boards than Portis, and aside from his standard 3 or 4 blocks I’m thinking 8 rebounds should be a fairly easy assignment for him.
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Ja Morant over 24.5 oints (-118)
Speaking of easy assignments, Ja Morant has made 3-point shooting look like that over the last several games. Ja has scored 2 threes in 3 of his last 4 outings, and he’s averaging 23.4 points per game in his last 10 while playing under 30 minutes per game. Earlier this season he played only 26 minutes against Milwaukee and finished with 25 points, that was the 3rd time in 4 meetings he had cleared this line. It’s been a struggle guarding the perimeter for the Bucks as they’re allowing 37.5% from 3-point land in their last 3 games and with the reserves playing that might be the case again. My main concern is that the Grizzlies lead by 20+ at halftime and Morant doesn’t play enough minutes, but let’s hope that is not the case.
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